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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Pipeline 04 girls ECNL is ranked low and smashed much much higher teams in jeff cup. [/quote]

Pipeline is a bit of a special case because they've played hardly any league games this year - presumably becvause of covid - so very difficult for the ranking system to work without data.

However - even despite that - they're ranked #2 in MD with a ranking score of 35.23.  They beat TSJFCV 3-1 (ranking 37.02 - less than 2 goal difference), East Meadow 2-1 (ranked 36.04 - less than 1 goal difference), and NC Courage ECNL Academy 2-1 (ranked 35.39 - basically the same ranking).  The only result that is even a little bit surprising is the first - but even then is well within the bounds of normal.  Soccer games involve a lot of randomness.  The best team does not always win.  A team really has to be a LOT better to always win.  If the difference in ranking is more than 2 goals the better team will usually win - maybe 70%.  If it's more than three goals, this goes up to say 80% with 10% ending in a tie.

A ranking system cannot do the impossible and predict which team will win - because
(a) the better team doesn't always win
(b) teams are improving, or deteriorating, or they just get hot for a tournment or even just lucky.
(c) players get injured, coaches change etc. etc.
A ranking system is limited to predicting which team is more likely to win based on its track record to date.

When I look at YSR - if the teams are within a goal then either side has a good chance to win.  Anything within two means that the lower ranked team absolutely has a chance to pull off the upset.  When the difference is over 4 goals, only then do things start to get into the realm of "just not going to happen".  And yes one has to be more suspicious of the ranking for a team with few recent games in its record.
[/quote]

Oh - one more note here - when using YSR - the actual ranking score is what's important.  Just because a team is #1 in your state doesn;t make them massively better than the number 4 team.  In many cases the top half dozen teams nationally all have very similar ranking scores - in other words the #1 is not massively better than the #6 at all, and the difference between #6 and #20 is even smaller.

Obviously #1 gets bragging rights though :-).[/quote]

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