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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I almost think it's more of an optimistic outlook to think colleges won't open. If they do, it will be putting their financial interests over public health.[/quote]

I really object to the Public health vs financial interests argument. The economy includes public health interests. [/quote]

Bingo!!!  You’d think this would be common sense but it clearly is not[/quote]

But ignoring public health interests will also have massive economic consequences.  It's not either/or. It's what will the impact be from a wide range of not-very-good choices with very imperfect information that is continually in flux.  Look at the models, accept uncertainty; don't assume there is an easy answer and adapt as the data changes.  Even economists say if there's a second wave that's worse due to premature relaxing of social distancing the economic consequences will be far more severe than keeping it up until the models are more stable.  There's no such thing as "common sense" that adequately makes sense of a complex novel pandemic in a globalized context.   That's just wishful thinking.[/quote]
 
Don't create strawmen by assuming that public health interests are being ignored by those who advocate opening up.  Furthermore, models become more accurate as more data are generated.  Don't ignore the new data and allow it to guide policy.  Don't assume the "easy answer" is being advocated by those wishing to open up.

And give me a cite to economists stating that a second wave being worse should lead to worse outcomes due to relaxation of social distancing, particularly when the relaxation of social distancing is undefined.  That analysis requires a lot of medical expertise for which economists would have little expertise.  I think you are making it up. [/quote]

I'm not arguing that we shouldn't open up! I was just saying that these things are all intertwined and NOT answered by common sense and that the data is imperfect and we need to just let the experts make the choices--epidemiologists first economists second, politicians, individual business owners and individuals with "common sense" are way down at the end of the line in who has anything intelligent to say about this.  Colleges are going to follow the recommendations best they can--even if they are posturing now to avoid recruiting death spirals.  THey are "planning" to be open, they are "hoping" to be open, they are "expecting" to be open, but they will follow whatever their state guidelines recommend.  And hopefully the state guidelines will recommend something that is well-informed by a full range of perspectives from epidemiologists to economists.

As for the economist,  I was just saying that any economist also acknowledges that IF a second wave was worse that COULD be more disastrous for the economy than continuing to shelter in place. This is just basic acknowledging the uncertainty of the models.  They can see more clearly the economic impacts of the current policy of shelter-in-place is since it's already happening.  It's much harder to predict how severe a second wave would be--and if it were on the upper end of severity it would be worse on the economy since we would shut down again AND overwhelm our hospital capacity.  The more uncertainty, the wider the range of potential outcomes.  Could also have better outcomes.  My point was to just dismiss that there was facile "common sense" on either side--we should stay close forever or we should open up. It's a tough problem with no easy answers. [/quote]

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