Reply to Bowser: "We have flattened the curve in an amazing way"

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Reply to "Bowser: "We have flattened the curve in an amazing way""

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]There were 15 new deaths reported today, matching the highest day yet. That's not consistent with the curve being flattened. [/quote]

Since it matched the highest day yes that could be a flat line. [/quote]

It could be, and that would be great, but people need to understand that when the line becomes flat, that's only the beginning of the "flatten the curve" strategy.  You have to maintain social distancing for an extended period to KEEP the line flat so that as people inevitably keep getting infected, they can have hospital beds and ventilators available.

There are only 3 possible endings to this:

We maintain social distancing until enough people have been infected and recovered that we gain herd immunity (which is estimated at 70% of the population for COVID-19)

We maintain social distancing until a vaccine is developed and widely distributed. (probably 18 months or so, if ever)

We stop social distancing before either of those things, at which point the virus will run rampant, infect up to 70% of the population all at once and millions will die, completely negating all of the social distancing we have worked so hard on these past couple months.

That's it, there are no other options. If we don't want to pick option 3, we're in for a penny, in for a pound with social distancing.

[/quote]

Option 4, the whole entire point of social distancing/flattening the curve was to ensure that hospitals didn’t become overwhelmed with patients, leading to rationing of care, lack of ICU beds, etc. This goal has been fulfilled to the point that hospitals are laying off staff due to under-use. We very gradually open back up, avoiding large mass gatherings (live sports, performances, crowded bars, etc.) for quite awhile. There will be some cost-benefit analysis too, like people don’t need to go to bars, but kids do need to go to school. Yes, unfortunately, people get sick because there’s no putting the virus back where it came from, BUT hospitals have enough capacity and ventilators to deal with the sickest patients. The end. [/quote]

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