Reply to Bowser: "We have flattened the curve in an amazing way"

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Reply to "Bowser: "We have flattened the curve in an amazing way""

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][b]This whole thing is a disgrace.  All the models have been completely wrong.  To call them "science" is laughable. [/b] They are nothing more than spitballs.  To blow up families' livelihoods over these guesses is shameful.  We need to get back to work.[/quote]

Well the curve has flattened for right now but it will go back up as soon as we return to the office

and yes, the models are usually based on the worse case scenario minus some variable - that's where you start and then scale back as more info becomes available

we used info from Italy and Spain and China, groomed it for US populations, came up with the worst scenario and minus-ed some variable - maybe 5%

At the start of all this, there was an article posted on medium.com and on the link was elsewhere on dcum. There was a ton of uproar over it and how it was all wrong and based on nothing. The author basically said that the numbers were a guess, the models were a guess and based on flawed inputs and we should build models only on true data that we get from the US and make decisions on that.   I started following the guy on twitter and looking back I think his article had a lot more merit than I first thought.[/quote]

It is impossible to have accurate numbers from these models.  Unless you are testing every single person in the country, basically, every single week, the numbers are meaningless.  You could test negative this week, but positive next week.  You could test 100 people, or 1000 people, or 10,000 people, and it would make a huge difference in the model.  [/quote]

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