Reply to Bowser: "We have flattened the curve in an amazing way"

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Reply to "Bowser: "We have flattened the curve in an amazing way""

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]There were 15 new deaths reported today, matching the highest day yet. That's not consistent with the curve being flattened. [/quote]

Since it matched the highest day yes that could be a flat line. [/quote]

It could be, and that would be great, but people need to understand that when the line becomes flat, that's only the beginning of the "flatten the curve" strategy.  You have to maintain social distancing for an extended period to KEEP the line flat so that as people inevitably keep getting infected, they can have hospital beds and ventilators available.

There are only 3 possible endings to this:

We maintain social distancing until enough people have been infected and recovered that we gain herd immunity (which is estimated at 70% of the population for COVID-19)

We maintain social distancing until a vaccine is developed and widely distributed. (probably 18 months or so, if ever)

We stop social distancing before either of those things, at which point the virus will run rampant, infect up to 70% of the population all at once and millions will die, completely negating all of the social distancing we have worked so hard on these past couple months.

That's it, there are no other options. If we don't want to pick option 3, we're in for a penny, in for a pound with social distancing.

[/quote]

All three options assume it's possible to gain immunity. If immunity isn't possible the prospects get a lot darker.

Under option #1, if we keep the infection rate low enough to keep from overwhelming hospitals we're probably looking at 18 months to herd immunity.

Although the story in the NY Times today is encouraging, antibodies test find over 20% of New Yorkers have had COVID:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?type=styln-live-updates&label=new%20york%20&index=1&action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-6bcc6a71

Herd immunity may be closer than we think.[/quote]

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