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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous] Try getting in to one of these places these days.[/quote]

Why wouldn’t a very good student get in?[/quote]

I find it interesting that this year only UVA and VT managed to meet their enrollment targets (VT in catastrophic fashion, of course).  Nationwide, the number of students has been [url=https://hechingerreport.org/universities-colleges-struggle-stem-big-drops-enrollment/]dropping significantly over the last decade[/url],[b] so contrary to what you may have heard, a student of the class of 2023 probably has a better chance of getting into a top school [/b](at any level, public or not) than a student of the class of 2013.[/quote]

Define "top school." I call BS on this. [/quote]

You don't need to define "top school."

In 2011, there were 20.4 million students enrolled. In 2017, it was 18 million students, mostly due to declining birthrates. [url=https://hechingerreport.org/universities-colleges-struggle-stem-big-drops-enrollment/]Source[/url]. Read [url=https://www.insidehighered.com/news/survey/2018-surveys-admissions-leaders-pressure-grows]this 2018 report about how colleges can't fill their slots[/url], and international enrollment didn't help.

Now let's assume that there a X slot at top schools. Let's assume (pessimistically) that X didn't change between 2011 and 2017 (whatever the top schools are, they didn't decrease capacity). Let's assume, completely naively, that the top schools admit the best applicants (ok, this is getting a bit too theoretical, but stick with me.)

So in 2011, you needed to be in the top (1 - X/20.4M) * 100 percentile to get one of these slots. In 2017, it sufficed to be in the (1 - X/18M) * 100 percentile. In other words, the number of students with whom you compete for slots at "top schools" - however you define them - decreased by 11%.  This means that a fair number of students who based on their relative standing to their peers weren't admitted to top schools in 2011 were admitted in 2017.  In reality, X has increased since "top schools" - by whatever definition have seen positive capacity growth, exacerbating this effect.
[/quote]

Sorry, but that's just gibberish to me.  The top schools are getting more selective, the admitted stats are getting higher and higher.  Anyone who has been through the process in the last few years can see this.[/quote]

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