Reply to APS: I can't keep up! (ASFS)

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I just watched the school board meeting.  The ASFS parents really didn't come off well.
I know that it is a hard temptation to resist, but I wish we could collectively resist thinking that the current space capacity issue is someone's 'fault' and that there are other schools less burdened, in a better position to be overcrowded, etc.
The fact of the matter is- all the schools are overcrowded.  ASFS really isn't special.  ASFS is a relatively small building- with a capacity of 553, and an enrollment of 652.  But the site is pretty typical- 6.6 acres
https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/FAC_1300-Analysis_Final_20170214-1.pdf
http://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Capacity_Utilization_FallProjections17-26_Final_Web.pdf

It really falls in the middle of the pack in terms of overcrowding.

We need more schools.[/quote]

You don't understand, at a PTA meeting with a school board member who is just voted out of office.they told us that SFS numbers would double when they convert key to a countywide program. It is only moderately over capacity it now, maybe 130%? That is totally  tolerable. It's this policy change that will turn science focus into an 800 students school that is what we want to put the brakes on. Just to give the county and schoolboard time to actually do analysis and projections and plan. They should just do the boundary changes that they are proposing across all north Arlington and then make key countywide program at that point. [/quote]

This is not correct.  If JL said this, he is mistaken.  Look at the data.  First off, there will no longer be Jamestown and Taylor students in the incoming class as ASFS in 2018, since the team is going away.  Then if you look at the additional number of students that *could* attend ASFS from the neighborhood, if there weren't any transfers elsewhere, and you get about 40 total kids.  Then figure that there will be transfers out (to option schools) from this pool and we are talking about maybe an additional kindergarten class, give or take.  That is what the numbers say.

ASFS is not going to go from 563 to 800.  Pure crazy talk.

Certainly adding an additional kindergarten at ASFS is not ideal, but it does not approach the missing seats at McKinley (before addition) or Claremont or Henry or Oakridge.  Nor does it create an 820+ elementary school, which is what Oakridge currently is.[/quote]

There was a numbers staff member at the meeting. ASFS is currently 652, with about 150 Jamestown /Taylor. The staff member said about have the neighborhood attends ASFS, half key -- so the ASFS zone has about 1000 students between key and ASFS. Let's take away all those OOB students, and drop to 500, but if the countywide lottery (which is 12 schools -- so if key is 600, it's like ASFS zone will get 8% of that so, about 50 kids will continue to go to key.)  so 1000 in-bound ASFS, 50 go to key, maybe another 15 ATS? You get to a 900 student school in a couple of years -- and you know that new boundary process will be BRUTAL and delayed). Plus we have 150 students grandfathered with siblings. [/quote]

APS needs to a better job of explaining the numbers.  And it doesn't help when board members say crazy things like swapping buildings or scare people with big numbers.  Let me try to explain.  By the way, these numbers all come from APS and have been validated by staff.  Take a look at the most recent transfer report for some detail.

ASFS in 2016
510 from local neighborhood
123 from Jamestown/Taylor team
 20 from other (admin transfers)
------------------------------------------
653 total ASF students

Key in 2016
291 non-team transfers
 99 team transfers
280 from local neighborhood
------------------------------------------
670 total Key students

So the total pool of kids (across 6 grades) from the neighborhood going to these two schools is 790 students.

But the real question is how many of the 280 students currently going to Key will go to ASFS in 2018?

Keep in mind that the 280 represents 6 grades.  Dividing the 280 by 6, we get about 48 per grade from the neighborhood.  Add in a factor of about 25% for siblings and you get 60.  But then we need to remember that the majority of the close neighborhood around Key is native Spanish speakers who could get into Key to meet the 50/50 language goal.  Based upon historical numbers this would take us back down by about a third to a rough number of about 40.

I have it on good authority that APS is going to clarify these numbers quickly to help alleviate some of the confusion.
[/quote]

And the 50/50 is that policy? There are plenty of so Arlington schools with huge native Spanish populations that will likely opt for key; unless key/ASFS zone maintain preference They will end up at 800+!ASFD. [/quote]

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