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Reply to "Kamala Harris for President"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Here's the latest polls that make a Madame President seem far more likely... @MorningConsult battleground tracking among LVs: AZ: Harris 47%, Trump 49% GA: Harris 48%, Trump 48% MI: Harris 49%, Trump 46% NV: Harris 48%, Trump 48% NC: Harris 48%, Trump 48% PA: Harris 49%, Trump 46% WI: Harris 49%, Trump 46%[/quote] These are not great at all. [/quote] Why not? If she wins PA, her path to 270 i pretty easy.[/quote] PA is one of the biggest Trump states in the NE so don’t count on it. Biden only won by 1.4% and that’s his home state. PA is Pennsyltucky after all. Western PA and Ohio are all Trump Land. She has more of a shot in Georgia than PA.[/quote] You are believing your rural Pennsyltuckey friends and family far too much. With the exception of 2016, when Trump scored PA because the Clinton campaign manager screwed up, PA has not voted for a Republican for president since Bush in 1988--36 years. Trump scored a coup when the Clinton campaign essentially relied on Pennsylvania voting reliably blue and did not defend it. Trump's went and campaigned in rural PA and some of the smaller cities and managed to get just enough votes (barely 0.5%) to win the state. Note that Biden's campaign was wise to pay attention in 2020 and they won the state by 2.2%. Harris' campaign will do that again. The Philadelphia metropolitan area has 50% of the state voters and is reliably blue. Pittsburgh metropolitan area is blue in the most populous county, Allegheny county. The area is 20% of the state population and tends to vote about 75% Democratic, mostly in Allegheny county, the other counties tend to lean slightly red. Scranton, Allentown, Harrisburg, State College and Eric all lean blue. So the areas that you cite as Trump county add up to barely 1/3 of the state voter population. Trump has a very weak chance of taking Pennsylvania again as long as Harris and her surrogates campaign there, which they have been doing regularly throughout the campaign. It would be very unlikely that Trump takes PA.[/quote] Agree - as someone who lived in PA for 25 years, Carville is still right, from back in the Clinton days. Win Philly, Pittsburgh and a few other key places like Scranton and/or Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton area and you've solidly won PA. Last time around, Trump was able to pick up some support in the Philly burbs and a few other places like Luzerne County but this time around he doesn't seem to have it. And when I've traveled around PA to visit friends and family over the last few weeks I've noticed a significantly fewer number of Trump signs, flags and banners than last time around, particularly as compared to the numbers of Harris/Walz/Casey etc signs I'm seeing this time around. I was actually depressed with the numbers of Trump signs last time - but I'm excited and encouraged by the reversal this time. I think Trump will lose PA.[/quote] Scranton in particular went blue specifically because of Scranton Joe. And he's uh... not running anymore. Harris won't get anywhere near the same margins there or in similar demographic areas. [/quote] He is campaigning there for Harris, so there is that.[/quote]
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