Reply to Only ~14% Of U.S. Adults Have Gotten Latest Covid-19 Vaccine Update

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Reply to "Only ~14% Of U.S. Adults Have Gotten Latest Covid-19 Vaccine Update"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]It seems like the vax stopped the hospital and morgue overcrowding in 2020-21. Remember when ICUs were triaging people because they ran out of beds? I think most people have antibodies from prior infections and injections protecting them somewhat now, so it doesn't seem like as big of a deal. [/quote]
Omicron is milder than the earlier strains. If you look at Society for Actuaries data, excess mortality from covid remained high all through 2021 despite the covid vaccines. It wasn't until early 2022 that excess mortality from covid fell plunged, which occurred as Omicron became the dominant strain. https://www.soa.org/4ac0fd/globalassets/assets/files/resources/experience-studies/2023/group-life-covid-mort-06-23.pdf  Page 27, Table 5.9

Omicron affects the upper respiratory system more than earlier strains, yielding far milder outcomes. All of today's circulating covid strains are Omicron variants. https://covariants.org/[/quote]

The actuary data is interesting. [b]Does this mean that the vaccines didn't save that many lives?[/b] Does it show increased deaths from non-covid? They really should do randomized trials with them. I'm not getting anymore covid vaccines because the mrna/nanoparticles are too new and didn't like the side effects from 2nd shot. Maybe novavax in the future but covid is relatively mild(the only time 1 got it in jan earlier this year) not sure I will. [/quote]
Of course, the vaccines saved lives.[/quote]

In the fullness of time, I suspect we will conclude that the vaccines saved lives, but that the vast majority of lives saved came among those who got the vaccine between December 2020 and the emergence of Omicron in late 2021. Omicron just wasn't dangerous enough to the general population, and the vaccines couldn't stop transmission any more. From that point forward the vaccines stopped providing any net benefit except to a small proportion of the old and immune-deficient. I suspect we could stop vaccinating and tracking it tomorrow and no one would be able to tell from the raw data that something had changed. It's basically become equivalent to the other four circulating coronaviruses, which are bad colds which everyone gets when they are young, and are periodically re-exposed. [/quote]
Agree with your second point, but think it's unclear what the vaccine's effect was in 2020-21. There has never been a fully successful vaccine for a coronavirus because they target the upper respiratory tract which is effectively an external surface of the body and thus not readily accessible by vaccines.

This article outlines the difficulties of using an intermuscularly injected vaccine for viruses that infect the upper respiratory tract. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03557-7  "Current injectable COVID-19 vaccines are unable to induce robust immunity in the mucosal tissues lining the airways. ... At present, COVID-19 vaccines are administered through injection into muscle. Although these shots are generally effective in providing protection against developing severe disease, they are less good at preventing infection by rapidly evolving variants of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. ... Intramuscularly injected vaccines cannot induce immunity in the mucosal tissues of the airways, which is the site of SARS-CoV-2 entry." [/quote]

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