Reply to Arlington Missing Middle Housing Q&A

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Haven’t read all the pages on this, but just scanned a Boston fed report on increased density - even they say increased density makes neighborhoods less valuable/perceived quality declines for homeowners.

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2022/10/boston-fed-research-relaxing-density-restrictions-best-way-to-increase-multifamily-housing.aspx

“House prices would likely fall with rents if greater housing density is allowed
The authors find that zoning reform that relaxes density restrictions doesn’t just reduce rents. It also causes house prices to fall—including single-family house prices. Their analysis shows that allowing one more housing unit per acre in a Greater Boston neighborhood increases the number of units in that neighborhood by an average of 0.4. This increase results in the neighborhood’s rents dropping more than 5% and house prices falling more than 7% on average (see graphic). [b]House prices drop because the housing supply increases. Or they fall because when a neighborhood becomes denser, its perceived quality declines[/b].“

Obviously, Boston is bigger than Arlington so our supply may not make a difference to prices but the perceived quality sure will decline!

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that's great news! that way more people of all backgrounds can afford to live in Arlington. what's the problem with that? 
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It's actually a catch 22. Once housing prices drop in Arlington, the "missing middle" will no longer be clamoring to live there. They only want to buy there now because they perceive that it's the ticket to wealth. But desirability does change over time. For example, PG County was viewed as being more desirable in the 1970s than it is today. (My parents lived in Greenbelt back then and said it was on par with desirable parts of Moco.) People shouldn't take for granted that just because Arlington is close in, it will always be desirable.[/quote]

You are right about that. It’s not just be close in. It’s the access to the metro and now the fact that Arlington has been built up with businesses and retail. Your argument is make believe bc you can’t stand the idea that your house value might actually come down to be in line with what it’s actually worth.  [/quote]

Do you think those nice businesses, retail, and restaurants will stay in Arlington when housing prices fall and the affluent continue to move to McLean.  Metro is less of a draw now as more people work from home or only commute a few days a week. It is easier and cheaper to drive to work two days than to use Metro for five days a week.   Why do you think the traffic is so bad in Arlington? Read the recent article from "Protocol" about the Amazon buildings in Crystal City.  They were designed for 2019 working and now the 2022 workforce isn't interested in them.  Amazon is not sending its top executives to Arlington because of relocation costs and plans to hire locally among young people who can rent the cubes in CC and walk to work.      Arlington relied too heavily on commercial and hotel tax revenue and now has to build missing middle housing to make up for the ongoing loss of this part of its tax base.  The accompanying drop in schools, services, parks, and recreation facilities will only be exacerbated as more people crowd into the County.

I don't think Missing Middle Housing is a bad idea, but recognize it for what it is:  a way to broaden the residential tax bases to make up for commercial tax losses.  Even the dim head of the ACB admitted that Arlington was envious of neighboring counties and jurisdictions that had built their tax primarily on residential use.  They do not have to play catch up with Missing Middle Housing to get more tax revenues.

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DP. Housing prices falling in Arlington doesn’t magically open up commercially zoned real estate in other areas as “ …the affluent continue to move to McLean”. 
If anything if you look at places like Alexandria vs. McLean or San Francisco vs. Atherton it seems like there’s an inverse relationship between retail and school quality etc[/quote]

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