Reply to Taylor's Feb Rec for Crown Boundary Study

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Reply to "Taylor's Feb Rec for Crown Boundary Study"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Well there you have it... Dr. T was asked pointedly about the FAKE "Rockville Recommendation" (aka Option G) during the Jawando Education Budget Forum tonight and if he was reconsidering it for his recommendation and he said "absolutely not". It's giving... I appreciate the offer but I'm just not interested.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA[/quote]

Taylor is never going to pursue Option G. The only chance it has is if the board itself takes the side of those who are arguing for it.

One of the big hurdles with Rockville’s argument is that it suggests Crown be filled/opened as a full school upon inauguration of a new Wootton building on Wootton parkway. If done that way, it would leave the county with no holding school for subsequent high schools which need renovation after Magruder/Wootton. So the superintendent won’t be too thrilled about that. [/quote]

Wrong. The hurdle is money. Lack of.[/quote]

Two things happened contributing to Wootton closure:
1. Building crown with the money to renovate Wootton.
2. Regional programs which take away the operational cost for crown as 27th high school.

Wootton is the one being hurt here. But the resentment toward W schools is making people lose perspective and react irrationally.[/quote]

Correct. But they are hiding behind fiscal responsibility to excuse their prejudice. It’s yet another example of selective scrutiny (or criticism). They turn a blind eye towards the EV buses shenanigans because they’re pro-green energy (I.e., the ends justify the means).

Most recently on the Wootton closure, they’re turning a blind eye to the enrollment projection data used to justify building Crown, as well as to support Option H. Here’s the problem for them. If the BOE votes to adopt Option H in the face of serious questions about the underlying data, then it’s setting itself up for a smack down by the MD State BOE and/or an court injunction. The smart move for the BOE would be to hold a hearing, calling for experts from both sides, which would demonstrate appropriate due diligence. But this would mean a delay in transplanting Wootton to Crown for the 2027-2028 school year and force MCPS to either fill it with Gaithersburg kids or use it primarily as a holding school. Either way, Option H will be dead or delayed for a few years at least.  A delay in Option H and using Crown as a holding school for a few years wouldn’t be a bad outcome for right now, especially since there is precedent with how MCPS used the new Woodward building.  It would also give everyone time to cool off. [/quote]

You're both (all?) wrong. The mistakes have led us here, sure. But moving Wootton to Crown is about what is current - the now. Lack of funding for Wootton now AND decline in enrollment now.

I'm not a fan of regional model (info is severely lacking thus far). But does the regional program budget = the cost of an operational 27th high school. I would think not though haven't checked and again... info is lacking.

And who is turning a blind eye on enrollment projection data? Data showed Crown was needed at one point. Now data shows it's not. Data is coming from MCPS. Things change over time.[/quote]

First data error by MCPS - The 2019 enrollment projections were completely inaccurate when they were used by MCPS to break ground on Crown. No one with any sense was using pre-COVID projections in 2024. The reason to use those projections was to justify building Crown and not lose the land on which it sits.

Second data error by MCPS - its growth projections in the Wootton and Crown areas are grossly underestimated. This is demonstrated by the City of Rockville and the MBIA (both of which would have a much more accurate sense of the actual growth rate). By ignoring reality, MCPS can grab Wootton’s current building to use as a holding school and avoid operating a 27th school.  It will be even worse off in 5-10 years and have to reopen Wootton as a 27th school, but will have eliminated a top performing school. [/quote]

Completely agree that using pre-COVID data was an error, but the declines in enrollment MCPS is experiencing right now (2600 fewer students this year and 5000+ next year) could not have been predicted by any model. The federal job loss and outmigration and disruption to immigrant communities are completely unprecedented and have ramped up a trend started by the COVID-era erosion of trust in public schools (and declining birth rates).

However, the idea that the city of Rockville and the MBIA have a better sense of the growth rate is wishful thinking at best. Because of all the aforementioned trends, housing development isn’t as good a predictor of public school enrollment as it used to be, especially in the Wootton catchment area where costs are high (part of why, even before all these trends, Wootton has been underenrolled for the better part of the last decade). And most of the data Rockville and the MBIA are citing is information on individual housing developments that may or may not actually get built. Not even close to offsetting that 7000+ student decrease over the course of 2 years.

Could the population rebound in 10 years creating a need for the 27th school? Of course - population growth projections aren’t reliable 10 years out, even in normal times. But MCPS has historically done a boundary study every 5-10 years anyway, so I don’t think they’re looking for a solution that prevents that nearly inevitable need[/quote]

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