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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I predict MLSN HG will go SY within 2-3 years.  Year 1 and maybe 2 will be able to continue the pipeline of BY players, with little turnover, and feel like they are doing fine.  But they'll quickly start receiving complaints and concerns around the U13 transition.  The "best" players from SY U12 will be nervous about going to tryout for MLSN HG U14.  Many of the players who could make HG U13 teams won't realize that they could make the team bc they aren't their team's best player.  While the very best players with pro-ambitions may still find their way to HG, the bottom half of teams will be weaker, which will be apparent in any inter-age scrimmages where the younger teams appear to be falling off from their pre-2026 levels.  They will start looking at their birth month profiles, see an even larger fall off of Aug-Dec birthdays than pre-2026, and determine (like English academies) that this level of RAE is a huge potential financial cost to their pro league.  At that point, they will finally start an honest conversation around what development benefit they get from BY, decide that they are hurting the MLS pipeline solely for the purpose of helping USYNT finishes, and end it. They run a serious risk of ECNL gaining popularity among the best players while they get dragged into SY over those few years.

Just my prediction.  It will be interesting to see if MLS/MLSN/clubs are really saying "this is fine" in 2028.  
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My prediction is as long as MLSN is associated with MLS it wont matter if they stay BY. On top of everything else MLSN has biobanding and multiple other rules they could implement to make BY and SY sync/mesh.

I get what you're trying to say even if I dont agree. But, you're not taking into account all the changes that can be implemented to make things work. You're assuming MLSN2 SY will function like ECNL which isnt a good bet.[/quote]

The "3-D chess" theory is that MLS (pro) really doesn't care if ECNL gains on MLSN1.  MLSN1 might lose depth, and become more niche for future pros, but if ECNL SY becomes a better alternative league for Aug-Dec kids to develop, MLS gets two development pools with different cutoffs.  ECNL becomes an unwitting partner for MLS development.  MLSN1 may appear weaker at U13/14/15 than it was, but by U16/17/19 the future pro players will move to MLSN1.  So it's possible that MLSN1 appears weaker (in early ages and overall depth) and ECNL "wins" in that it gains ground, but as a pro-development pool, the overall youth system better benefits MLS. This assumes that prioritizing development of two different birth month pools is better than trying to consolidate all the talent in one pool.[/quote]
TLDR

Way too complicated [/quote]

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