Reply to What is the End Game in Ukraine?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Crimea is emptying out of Russians now as well.

Amazing.[/quote]

Evidence?[/quote]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-russian-intelligence-officers-and-military-commanders-flee-crimea-kyiv-claims-live/ar-AA11L7W0

"In the Russian-occupied regions of the Crimea and southern Ukraine, Russian proxies, intelligence officers and military commanders have begun to evacuate and “urgently resettle their families” back into Russian territory, the defence intelligence of Ukraine’s military of defence said."[/quote]

I'd discount anything that comes from the warring parties themselves.  Ukraine was always open about conducting an "information war" in addition to the actual one.[/quote]

DP please. The terrain dictates what can be held and what can not be held. There are a few key areas(urban area, bridges, rivers, etc) on the open steps.  Once one area falls other areas become untenable(supply line, limited area of mobility, lack of defensive structure, etc). The mud season is coming and everything will be forced to improved roads. If the roads can not be protected supplies will not get through. [/quote]

Russian supply logistics are conducted almost entirely by rail. That does not bode well for being able to effectively reconstitute ground forces without air superiority. Beyond that all evidence points to severe degradation in equipment. Inoperable tanks and armored vehicles. Warped artillery barrels. High precision weaponry in short supply. This on top of the extraordinary losses already sustained. It will take time to redeploy forces from the east and supply them with winter gear. While RF can’t even pay its soldiers they provide death payment to families to buy a new Lada that some call a “coffin car.”

The pressures will continue to mount in Putin from the ultranationalists to his right who perceive him as weak for not leveling all of Ukraine. We will have to wait and see how Putin reacts. Will he lay blame on a group of “elites” within the military and siezed the opportunity to eliminate political threats? Will the hardliners pull off a Soviet style power grab? None of the outcomes seem great. [/quote]

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