Reply to Discussion Boundary Map out for APS- elementary schools

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]If ATS goes to McKinley, some of MCK will move to the ATE building bc it’s within the McK boundaries. Still, it’s the most logical. [/quote]

The chances of McKinley becoming choice and ATS becoming neighborhood are nil. ATS would not have a good walk zone.[/quote]

Totally agree. But what happens if they move immersion to S Arlington, Key becomes neighborhood and those are the only changes made. You’ve just mad the seat deficit in S Arlington worse to give Clarendon/wealthy folks a neighborhood school. Right then and there they’d have to commit to a new neighborhood school in SA. [/quote]

The seat deficit in S Arlington is purely theoretical at this point. If you look at the current number of students (including preschoolers) vs building capacity there are hundreds of open seats right now. There are even more if you take Claremont and Campbell out (and another immersion program in S Arlington would take some of Claremont's students). This is completely ignoring the obvious fact that zones can cross 50. Sorry about the formatting on the table, I can't figure out how to insert it properly. The first number is capacity, the second is actual Sept 2019 numbers, the third is over/under.

Abingdon 	725	751	-26
Barcroft	 460	450	10
Campbell	436	447	-11
Carlin Springs	585	645	-60
Claremont	599	741	-142
Drew	674	442	232
Fleet	752	637	115
Hoffman Boston	566	518	48
Oakridge	674	623	51
			
Total Overage			217
Total Overage w/o Option			370

[/quote]

What about Randolph?[/quote]

Oops, that's why I included my calculations! Randolph also has some open seats.

Abingdon	725	751	-26
Barcroft	460	450	10
Campbell	436	447	-11
Carlin Springs	585	645	-60
Claremont	599	741	-142
Drew	674	442	232
Fleet	752	637	115
Hoffman Boston	566	518	48
Oakridge	674	623	51
Randolph	484	461	23
			
Total Overage			240
Total Overage w/o Option			393

[/quote]

There’s a missing piece in your analysis, and that is, why are those schools under capacity. In Fleets case, it’s because it’s the largest school in the system and was opened this year and it’s makes sense to build capacity in. The other schools you name are under capacity, I think, because of their FRL rate. UMC see a FRL over 50 percent and it gives them pause, and in many cases avoid the school. You can see a sort of natural experiment in the years leading up to last years boundary process and fleets construction. For years, Henry and oakridge because ever more crowded as parents moved with their feet to those schools, which had declining frl rates that became increasingly appealing as they fell. Henry and oak ridge had frls in the 60s 12 years ago. Not anymore.

My point is, there may always be capacity at high FRL schools. Many SA schools simply cannot be balanced by SES without really extreme boundaries, and even the , parents may decide to go choice or private rather than attend.. Randolph, for example. If every kid living in a SFH in Douglas park attended, the frl rate would only go down 5 points. Other schools are in a similar circumstance. It’s kinda futile given our county housing policy and history of segregation dating to the 30s and 40s[/quote]

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