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[quote=Anonymous]Crazy analysis from BCA Research, the worst is yet to come because we are currently mitigating impact with strategic reserves/surpluses/oil still in transit:

[quote][i]
Over the past few days, BCA’s GeoMacro team has talked to several such firms – men and women who “count the molecules” – to produce Diagram 1. It is confusing, we admit. But it is the best that our collective wisdom could produce. It suggests that from February 28 to about April 19, the world is dealing with roughly a 4.5-5mb/d deficit of oil supply due to the closure of Hormuz, or 5% of global oil consumption.

For now, that number is manageable and fits somewhere in the “middling” range of crude supply losses over the past half-a-century (Chart 1). However, according to the conversations we had with energy experts and traders, as well as our own calculations, [b]that number will double by mid-April, becoming the largest loss of crude supply.[/b]
....
Diagram 1 therefore suggests that, by mid-April, the world will be missing 9% of total crude supply. That is about half of the demand destruction experienced during the pandemic (Chart 2). Allow us to repeat that statement. By mid-April, the world will lose the equivalent number of crude supply that mirrors half of the loss of demand incurred while we were all hiding in our homes, hugging our loved ones, and hoarding spare toilet paper rolls for comfort.
....
The bottom line for us is that time is running out on the economy. All that President Trump has managed to muster for the next few weeks of potential kinetic action are 8,000 troops. Elite, for sure. But a minuscule number in comparison with past military operations in the region. That skews the risks for the White House towards a Jimmy Carter-like “Operation Eagle Claw” disaster.
....
In conclusion, we now have sufficient information to conclude that the world will approach the R Point (a supply-side induced recession) from Diagram 2 by mid-April.[/i][/quote]

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