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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]For everyone who keeps saying Biden’s approval is low…
[twitter]https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1767190407727682034?s=46&t=kf1qYlCXQnKgUhJWEIu2vg[/twitter][/quote]

[twitter]https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1767210813394194842[/twitter]

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Unfortunately, his poll numbers don't look good among key groups needed to win in 2024. 
CBS News poll suggest Biden share among minority likely voters is down.
Hispanic share was 65% in 2020 and march 1st 2024 suggest share is now 53%
Black share was 87% in 2020 and march 1st 2024 suggest share is now 76%
If these numbers are an accurate reflection of Black and Hispanic support (and they stay around this level), Trump is practically guaranteed to win :(.  [/quote]

Tim Scott for VP might push him over the edge in a few swing states if a small percentage of Black voters switch from D to R. 
Black Percentage of registered voters for swing states.  Georgia: 32%, NC: 22%, Michigan: 13%, PA: 10%. I don't want Trump to win, [b]but a lot of Democrats are being way too confident that Biden will definitely win. [/b]The 2020 NC governors races suggest some vote switching will occur if Trump chooses a Black VP. In 2020 Incumbent NC Governor Cooper (D) got reelected with 51.5% of the vote. Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson (R) got 51.6% and he did not have incumbency advantage. In 2020 there were multiple NC counties with a large Black population where Democrats won for Governor, but Republicans won for Lieutenant Governor. 
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/north-carolina/governor/
https://www.jsonline.com/elections/results/race/2020-11-03-other-NC-36019/[/quote]

I know exactly zero democrats who are confident. Everyone I know is using spare time to volunteer to write postcards and phone bank.[/quote]
+1 I have what I heard Robert Reich call “nauseous optimism” but I am very far from confident. My former Republican until Trump sister who’s in the IC is fully freaking out.[/quote]

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