Reply to Virginia referendum - if you hate MAGA, vote YES (even if your mailing says to vote 'No')

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Reply to "Virginia referendum - if you hate MAGA, vote YES (even if your mailing says to vote 'No')"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]It looks like this amendment is likely to fail at this point. The early voter turnout from red areas is much higher than blue areas. Eg. The early voter turnout from Republican Fauquier county is  5.4%. The turnout from Fairfax county is only 2.6%. There is a very strong gradient between the percentage share of the county that voted republican in 2024 and the early voter turnout. This data also suggests that even within counties republicans are more likely to vote on this amendment than Dems. Unless turnout improves in democratic leaning areas, this amendment is likely to fail or it will be approved by a very slim margin. [/quote]

Fauquier County has 75,000 people...Fairfax County has 1.15MM.

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MAGAs suck at math. 
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I am aware of that population difference, but this substantial variation in voter turnout rates also suggests a very large enthusiasm gap by party. If turnout is also higher among republicans within blue areas that could be enough to shift the vote margins for the state as a whole. I would not be so arrogant and assume that you are going to win something before it happens. The voting data looks very concerning for anyone that wants this measure to pass. The turnout gap has become larger since yesterday. It’s now 6% for Fauquier and 3% for Fairfax. [/quote]

So much for that theory

[img]https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:7xrcjv6ggctoft5gm4ur4qk5/bafkreibtdqpm46qvlydnimjxcihashrszvctleqq636jxqdxnffvblb3s4[/img][/quote]

Not that it's much of an indicator, but I have seen more "Vote NO" signs in my neighborhood than Trump signs two years ago. I haven't seen any "Vote YES" signs either. [/quote]

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