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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 projection: negative 2.8%

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

There are some data issues because these models aren't really designed for these huge swings in gov spending, and there may be later inputs which smooth it out a bit.  But going to be rough.  If things like social security or VA payments show any signs of weakness, the pullback in consumer spending from that would be massive and could push us beyond recession and into a depression.[/quote]

Is there any way to stop this speeding train?[/quote]

Probably not- this plus the consumer confidence numbers point towards a snowball rolling down the hill, picking up speed quickly.  These things tend to be self-reinforcing for a while- people decide they feel uncertain, they pull back on purchases, companies slow production and hiring, people pull back more, etc.  The economic theory and actual data show that Keynesian pump priming is the key to getting out of that cycle, but these jabronis explicitly say they disagree with that.  The President (Elon) said the other day that "Keynes was a great evil".  They want to create a system where gov spending doesn't spur demand and investment- it is an award for kowtowing.  Down that road leads Russian oligarchy and stagnation.  Funny how these things line up![/quote]

S&P 500 down 2% so far today based on all this, plus the tariff "announcements" just now.  Good times all around.[/quote]

If the tariffs actually get implemented (and it looks like they will), it will be a lot worse tomorrow. The breakers may get tripped as people who were convinced Trump would delay them again rush for the exits. Following that will be a dead cat bounce and then more declines. [/quote]

Yes, I remember watching the stock market fall in 2008.  Hit the breakers one day, dead cat bounce the next.  Then some time of falling falling falling.

And for nothing.  The economy was doing okay - until Trump took a sledgehammer to it with massive firings and massive tariffs and crazy unpredictable behavior.

A madman is destroying America.  And those who have the power to stop him, they are doing nothing.[/quote]

I think it will be a depression vs recession.[/quote]

We will have to come up with a new word since Great Depression and Great Recession are taken.  Maybe Great Leap Forward?[/quote]

One might say that it's a Four Year Plan.[/quote]

Some may have to make sacrifices for the greater good. Those sacrifices may include some lives.  As long as the Great Leap happens, it will be worth it.[/quote]

My mom taught Chinese and Russian History and boy, this feels prescient. [/quote]

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