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Reply to "Do you think Trump's tax proposal will pass?"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The Tax bill has a provision that provides for a 100% corporate deduction for automation. In other words, when the factory floors are fully transformed to replace humans with robots, the companies will be able to deduct 100% of the cost. Meanwhile, the humans will not have access to decent jobs, education or healthcare. The GOP is setting up for the dystopian future. [/quote] The Washington Post had an article last week predicting that 1/3 of the US workforce is at risk of losing their jobs to automation. This tax bill will speed that up. I am not sure businesses will be doing a ton of investment spending but to the extent they do robots are likely to be a growth area Also iIF you have a big increase in investment spending in the short term you will not see a fall in employment as you will need people to make the robots and there will be a multipliers effect. In the short run there are likely to be benefits to the labor market but given that we are now at full employment this additional spending is very likely to cause inflation. The impact of inflation will be worsened by the GOPs adoption of chained CPI in the tax code which will move middle class families into higher marginal tax brackets more quickly This is likely to cause the Fed to increase interest rates which will affect every family which needs to borrow to buy a home a car or send their kids to college and every business that is not currently sitting on millions or billions of profits Also if the government is borrowing a trillion dollars over and above the half trillion a year they are currently scheduled to borrow even without the tax bill this will cause crowding out which means higher interest rates The tax bill robs from the future to give a sugar high in the short term. The deficits will make spending on research, education, workforce training, infrastructure etc much more difficult Finally given that businesses have been sitting on record profits without doing investment spending and their signals that they intend to use their windfall for stock buybacks and dividends we are more likely to see a stock market bubble Couple that with financial deregulation including a potential politicization of the federal reserve and there is a real risk of a financial crisis. This time though we will not have as many tools to use to dig ourselves out between high national debt and a potentially weakened Fed Perhaps this is why economists (me included) have been virtually unanimous in expressing serious misgivings about this bill[/quote]
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