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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
Were those exponential functions applied to the H1N1 in 2009? Just curious, if so, what they predicted.[/quote]

Yes. There was a ton of social distancing guidance issued early on, but in the end it turned out the virus was considered to be milder than seasonal flu, so the virus was more or less allowed to spread with little mitigation applied.

I think King County Washington may have been one area where schools were closed earlier than usual as a preemptive measure, but it backfired on them because other venues didn't close so kids congregated in other areas and spread occurred anyhow.  That's possibly one reason they are having trouble closing now:  that bad experience.

Here's copies of all the guidance issued in May 2009 for h1N1 Swine Flu

Remember that at the time it was issued the severity was still in doubt -- but no one was seeing 10% of cases in intensive care at the time.  We certainly didn't have 2 months' worth of notice and the news of massive lockdowns in China etc.

https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/schools[/quote]

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