Reply to Question about re zoning elementary schools in S. Arlington

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Neighborhoods can and do get split. It’s about planning unit. Look at Columbia Heights. It goes to several schools already.

As a side note it’s nice to see that N Arlington’s plans to send long branch kids to Fleet to make more room for themselves at Long branch and ASFS is not part of the actual plan.

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I believe Alcova does have multiple planning units; if so, they could very easily send the eastern part (which includes Gilliam Place) to Fleet and retain the western part at Barcroft.  But I don't think that will leave very many kids from Alcova at Barcroft to help.  It is much more likely they take only the small northern piece and send it to Fleet.  I'm not sure whether that is a separate PU.[/quote]

Alcova has 4 planning units. 2 little ones across from Fleet, which are mostly getting zoned there. The big one that includes the Foreign Service building, and a big one along Col Pike, where Gilliam will be.[/quote]

Thanks. Here are some numbers and contest.

The planning unit for Gilliam Place is 37050. The current (2017-18) k-5 estimate for that PU is 66, which makes sense given that the planning unit is currently almost entirely SFH. Whatever the estimate is for one or two years out should be higher than 66, with the addition of Gilliam Place.

The Berkeley is PU 48960. The Berkeley is the planning unit, actually. In 2107-18, APS said there were 36 k-5 students in the unit. That building will have at least 100 k-5 students when the expansion is complete.[/quote]

Here are APS estimates for the Berekeley out to 2021.

https://www.apsva.us/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/DRAFT-Planning-Unit-Level-Enrollment-Estimates-2019-to-2021-for-Web.pdf

As you can see, they are ridiculously low. Less than thirty kids at a giant AH complex that has over 200 two and three bedroom units!? Come on! This is simply not credible. Their own numbers for this past school year showed MORE than that!

The estimate for Gilliam Place's PU is 45. Last year there was no Gilliam place and there were 66 k-5 students in the PU.

When you build a large multi family complex in a planning unit, the number of k-5 students goes up, not down.[/quote]

That PDF also allows you to figure out stats for the graded program at Drew, because it excludes option school counts.

If you do that, you find that for Nauck proper, both sides of Glebe - the farms rate is 82 percent for 300 kids in 2019. If you add the planning units south of the pike that currently go to Henry to help fill the school and balance enrollment, that brings the Drew farms rate down to 66%. And still leaves room for 100-200 more students. If you then add the Berkeley planning unit enrollment is up to 500, and the farms rate is 68%. But, we know then aps figure for that pu is bogus (29 students, all ed). So let's change that to a realistic but still low estimate of 75. Then the rate is 70%. It goes up from there depending on how many kids you think will be at the Berkeley.

Sorry to be a wet blanket but I think it will be very difficult for the "new Drew" to be less than 65-75% disadvantaged.[/quote]

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