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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]If you have a summer birthday boy and don’t redshirt, you’re silly.  It’s not just about athletics either, it’s about sending a 17 year old boy off to college.  No thank you. But that’s for a different forum and post.

Regardless, my summer birthday kid has an august bday.  He his the age he swims at all season, not older.  He’s just lucky.  Moving the age cut off to august or September would mean he’d age up before he reached max age.  That doesn’t happen with a June 1 cutoff, for anyone. That’s why the cut off is where it is.  [b]Very few kids are swimming “old” — only those with June and July bdays. [/b]Just get over it. [/quote]

So very few equals roughly 15 percent of kids.  Good to know.[/quote]

15 percent of kids who participate in summer swim have June and July bdays? Where do you figure that? 15% is a small number—the vast majority of kids swimming in the summer are not “old”, and those that are only have a max two month “advantage”.  Stop with this stupidity.[/quote]

It's [b]basic[/b] math.  If assume birthdays are fairly evenly distributed throughout the year, which is a decent assumption for a large population, then about 8 percent of kids will have a birthday in any randomly selected month.  All of June plus most of July gives you about 15 percent.  It would be interesting though to see if there's any self-selection bias with those summer bday kids choosing to participate in summer swim at high rates than the general population or at significantly different rates than the kids with spring birthdays.[/quote]

Emphasis on basic.  You have no idea how many of those kids swim, what percentage of the summer swim cadre have June/July bdays, and whether or not they disproportionately win events or swim faster.  You are wayyyy overthinking and yet, under thinking this.  When your spring bday kid is a senior and the non-redshirts don’t come back to swim their last eligible year, they’ll have an “advantage” at that point, just relax.[/quote]

I don't have a dog in the fight.  I was only chiming in to point out that by divisionals there are more than a few over age kids.  By that point, there are probably more than 1,000 kids in NVSL, as an example, whose age exceeds their assigned age group.  Though not all of them will swim in divisionals.  As for your reference to seniors, I would say that the advantages of being oldest really show up in the early ages when kids are making big gains in terms of time drops per year.  Which partially explains why you see so many 9 year olds and 11 year olds winning All-Stars in the 8&u and 9-10 categories. [/quote]

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