Reply to Federal Reserve: signs abound that housing market is entering bubble territory

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Investment Banker here. (I'll keep saying that, just to piss off some of you :) )

Character assassination happens, when you run out of arguments. If you can't talk to the topic, shut up.[/quote]

Former investment banker here, left for PE like a normal person. The fact that you use “investment banker” shows how much of a tool you are. You literally make pitch decks for a living and get paid a lot for having been willing to work abusively long hours and be the last man standing when all of the folks from your analyst / associate class left for actually fulfilling careers where they aren’t making useless PowerPoints and  “turning comments” for a living.[/quote]
IB here (Acronym is easier to type... :), and yeah, I'm an early riser)

Well, hello PE guy/gal. More character assassination? Jealousy? Regret about moving to PE? Not getting paid enough there? And yes, I do get paid a lot for whatever it is that I do.

Me and my profession aside, I'm seeing radio silence on any of the arguments I've made since yesterday. No one has provided ANY concrete arguments that favors the RE market continuing to rise or even stay flat. None. That's telling.

In my profession, I get paid to analyze macro behavior, including human psychology, because guess what? We're dealing with humans for the most part (leaving aside the algo side of things). And I can promise you, everybody here who bought int he last 2 years is getting palpitations, whether they want to or not. Why?

The biggest misguided notion in the last two years was that the pandemic [b]will last for years and years[/b]. This was exacerbated in no small part by the current resident(s) of the White House, media, health agencies (CDC, NIH and the likes) and vested interests (more on that later). They created a "panic" and people bought into that. All this for a virus, whose fatality rate is no worse than many other things that we've lived with for decades, if not longer. Well, guess what? Two years in, and life is back to normal. Yes, there's still lingering effects of the pandemic, but it's become as easy to handle as annual flu shots.

Panic's over. Now comes the hangover.

The people who bought houses in the last 2 years were banking/betting on a long lasting pandemic that will fray dense urban cores, which in turn will drive RE demand across the periphery to a much higher level. It DID happen during the pandemic, but we're on the falling side of the bell curve now. Barring another global disaster, that bell curve will hold true in the near future. THAT is what the bond traders are reading, and you're seeing the results of that in rising interest rates.

As we speak, any potential home buyers should be looking at the RE market, with this expression (pardon my jest):

[img]https://preview.redd.it/50dhj4giwd221.jpg[/img]

Not this:

[img]https://i0.wp.com/media.boingboing.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/more-cowbell-gif-5.gif?resize=384%2C288&ssl=1[/img]
[/quote]

Funny enough, I actually agree with you. I just can’t take anyone who feels the need to point out that they work in banking seriously — it automatically tells me that something is wrong with you, and it comes across as you taking advantage of the general public’s ignorance about what you do to sound impressive. I was in a top coverage group before leaving for PE, and I can tell you that IB is a joke that involves absolutely zero rigorous analytical skills beyond very simple valuation models which require accounting 101 and literally just algebra and that’s it. IB, and investment bankers in general are quite literally the joke of all of Wall Street, and is just all around not an impressive career that no one in high finance actually wants to do. And excuse me, you do macro modeling in IB? Either you’re lying or you’re in some bizarre niche group because the only groups that really touch macro data are maaaybe ECM / DCM groups and a select few coverage groups for very cyclical industries, and even then you’re not working with the data you’re just pulling stuff from your banks research department and presenting it to the client.

And nah I’m not jealous. I’m early not even 30 yet and in a niche group at a MF where I quite literally work normal people hours yet get paid market for a MF PE VP. I will never work more than a 40 hour week in my life again and I will retire in my 40’s — I’m good.

Anyways, stop using your career to try to impress strangers on the internet. Massively lame move, especially when your career is IB
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