Reply to By the numbers: A dispassioned evaluation of Hardy (compared to Deal and Wilson)

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I am the PP who argued in favor of prisoners' dilemma for the Hardy 5th/6th grade transition.

(For the record, I have not made any posts about BASIS or OP's nationality.)

I wanted to raise something before, but did not want to derail the thread. No fear of that now, as it's already been done!

The main difference between the PD game and the stag hunt game is that PD has only one stable equilibrium (sell your friend out, sell your friend out), whereas stag hunt has at least two (cooperate, cooperate) and (do not cooperate, do not cooperate).

As I mentioned above, I think PD is more appropriate to Hardy, and I think our observations of reality back that up. Meaning, Hardy's very low IB percentage, 13% now and more or less persistent year after year, seems to indicate that (avoid Hardy, avoid Hardy) has been a stable equilibrium. Note: this can still change!

The idea I wanted to raise is that I think there is another place in DCPS where the stag hunt game is more applicable, and that is at PK in up and coming elementary schools.

Here, many high-SES people start at PK3 in ESs with very bad test scores in the upper grades. Each year they face the question, should I stay or should I go? Do I stay and cooperate to build this school into something better, or do I play the lottery for a charter or better DCPS?

I think for this PK graduation game, stag hunt may be appropriate. I think there are probably at least two stable (Nash) equilibria there, with one being (stay and cooperate, stay and cooperate). We are a little early to see if the observations of reality support this theory, and I have not thought very deeply about this, but this is my intuition at least.

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I am the anti- binary approach PP.   Again I think you are implying that any given situation is either a PD or a stag hunt. Given heterogeneity among decision makers, who face different costs and benefits (for example different ability to afford private, different attitudes toward privates,  different attitudes to charters, different luck in the charter lottery, as well as different beliefs about the cost of their kid attending a lower SES school) it is likely that the reality is somewhere in between.

As for stability, there is of course the widely circulated claim from Pride that the feeder % has increased substantially, which would seem to imply at least some increase in IB, in white/asian, and in non-FARMs.  But we do not have official data on any of that yet.  Which sort of brings us full circle, does it not? [/quote]

You're responding to my post. What you seem to be saying is that real life is more complicated than a 2-player model. Well, yes, can't argue with you there. But it's common to start with a simple model and then make our best effort to relax assumptions and add complexity. It's reasonable for me to debate with OP which of several competing game theory models might best apply to a given real life situation. It's not the end of the conversation, but it's a reasonable beginning. And as you may know, the debate over PD and stag hunt is a tricky one in general.

Or, if you reject that suggestion, then perhaps you reject much of contemporary microeconomics. Maybe you are part of the "heterodox" movement in economics. In which case I can't say that you're wrong, but you're raising issues that are way too big to be debated in an internet thread about Hardy Middle School.

As for IB increase, there were some numbers on IB (note: IB =/= feeder) discussed in another Hardy thread. Based on those, I think a suggestion of 17% IB was made, can't remember if that was for 6th or the whole school. Anyway unlike a lot of posters, I am patient enough to just wait for the number to be officially released by DCPS. I said previously in this thread that I am confident of Hardy's upward trajectory in terms of IB %. But, the very slow rise in IB% can't be ignored when considering PD versus stag hunt, I think.

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