Reply to Is there going to be panic selling?

Forum Index » Real Estate

Reply to "Is there going to be panic selling?"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The recent federal workforce reduction proposals, particularly targeting probationary employees, DEI-based contracts, and general federal downsizing, could lead to 64,500 - 114,400 job losses in the Washington, D.C. metro area. This includes 25,500 - 36,400 probationary federal employees who could face termination, 15,000 - 30,000 DEI-related contractor layoffs, and an additional 10,000 - 20,000 contractor losses from broader spending cuts. Reduction in Force  measures could add 10,000 - 18,000 terminations, with 4,000 - 10,000 indirect job losses impacting support roles. These job losses disproportionately affect homeowners, as 50-60% of federal employees and contractors own homes. This means that between 32,000 - 68,000 homeowners in the D.C. metro area may be forced to sell if they cannot secure alternative employment.

While this suggests a potential inventory increase, the return-to-office mandate is driving demand for homes inside the Beltway and in the inner suburbs, mitigating some of the housing supply pressures. Many federal workers moved to outer suburban areas like Prince William, Loudoun, Frederick, and Stafford counties during the pandemic when remote work was dominant. Now, with agencies enforcing 3+ day-per-week office returns, 5-10% of the federal and contractor workforce (~664,000 workers) could decide to move closer to D.C., translating into 33,000 - 66,000 buyers relocating to inside-the-Beltway areas and inner suburbs.

The real estate market inside the Beltway is already experiencing price appreciation, with home values in D.C. proper and inner suburbs like Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, Silver Spring, and McLean rising by 8.7% year-over-year. Luxury real estate is particularly in demand due to political appointees, lobbyists, and high-income professionals seeking proximity to the new administration. While an increase in forced sales due to job losses may put some pressure on inventory, the demand from RTO-driven relocations and high-income buyers should offset much of this impact.

If every single affected homeowner (32,000 - 68,000) had to sell and none could secure another job, then theoretically, there could be an oversupply of homes in the inner D.C. region, leading to some downward pressure on prices. However, this is unlikely to occur at such a scale, as many job losses will be staggered over time, and a significant portion of workers will transition into other roles, either within the federal government, private sector, or contracting industry. Given that the estimated RTO-driven demand (33,000 - 66,000 buyers) nearly matches the worst-case forced-seller scenario (32,000 - 68,000 homes entering the market), prices are expected to remain stable or see moderate growth.

Historically, the Washington, D.C. housing market has always had stronger demand inside the Beltway compared to the outer suburbs. Pre-pandemic, areas such as Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, McLean, and Silver Spring were highly desirable due to proximity to federal offices, amenities, and strong school districts. However, COVID-19 caused an exodus to the exurbs as remote work became widespread, leading to an artificial surge in demand and prices in areas like Loudoun, Prince William, and Frederick counties. Home price growth in exurban areas exceeded 15% year-over-year at its peak, compared to 14% in traditional suburbs and 10% in urban centers (nowbam.com). With the shift back to in-office work, many of these outer areas are now seeing declining demand, and home values are beginning to correct.

In contrast, inner-Beltway neighborhoods with strong school systems and transit access remain resilient. The fundamental factors that made these areas desirable before COVID (proximity, infrastructure, job access, schools) are still in place. The further out you go from the Beltway, the more home prices will remain flat or decline, as demand softens for pandemic-era commuter belt expansions. Outer exurbs, which saw some of the highest appreciation during COVID, are at the greatest risk of price corrections.

This worst-case scenario assumes that every affected federal employee and contractor (32,000 - 68,000 homeowners) is unable to secure another job and must sell their home, which is highly unlikely. Many will find alternative employment within the federal government, private sector, or through new contracts, reducing the number of forced sales. However, even in this extreme case, the data shows a clear divide in how different areas of the D.C. metro housing market will be impacted.

Outside the Beltway, particularly in the exurbs (Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick, and Stafford counties), home values will likely decline. The pandemic-driven remote work boom artificially inflated demand and home prices in these areas, and with RTO mandates and federal workforce cuts, demand is shifting back toward closer-in locations. The combination of increased supply from job losses and reduced demand from relocating workers is expected to put downward pressure on home prices in these outer regions.

Conversely, inside the Beltway, the market is expected to remain stable or even improve. Demand for homes in areas with good schools, transit access, and proximity to federal offices (such as Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, Silver Spring, and McLean) remains strong, driven by RTO relocations, high-income buyers (political appointees, lobbyists, and executives), and the underlying pre-COVID market fundamentals that always made these areas desirable. With 33,000 - 66,000 buyers moving inside the Beltway due to RTO, the impact of forced home sales from job losses should be fully or mostly absorbed by new demand, keeping prices flat to positive.

Bottom line: Even in the most extreme case, the inner-Beltway market is positioned to hold or grow in value, while outer suburban and exurban markets will likely see price declines as demand corrects from its pandemic-era surge.[/quote]
Finally a voice of common sense.[/quote]

The topic of panic selling is being discussed because feds are being laid off. Are you still with me, because this is the part you are missing. No fed or fed contractor or anyone in a fed adjacent job is going to sell their house and rent to be closer to a job they might not have in a week. Your logic is flawed. [/quote]

That long post honestly reads like ChatGPT word salad. Regardless of where it comes from, the comparison of "32,000 - 68,000" may be forced to sell vs."33,000 - 66,000" relocating inside in the Beltway is artificial and arbitrary. While it is true that RTO places some countervailing price pressure on the housing market, especially in the cases of people who were fully remote, there is no guarantee the impact of that will even close to match job cuts.[/quote]

The idea that job cuts and RTO relocations are a 1:1 trade-off is a misunderstanding of what’s actually happening in the D.C. housing market. The people losing jobs—probationary federal employees and contractors tied to DEI and other cut programs—aren’t the ones relocating inside the Beltway. They’re leaving the market entirely, either selling their homes or finding other jobs. Meanwhile, the people moving inside the Beltway are the ones still employed, dealing with return-to-office (RTO) mandates, and wanting to shorten their commute from the outer suburbs.

RTO-driven moves aren’t speculative; they’re already happening. Before COVID, the strongest demand was always in areas like Arlington, Bethesda, Alexandria, Silver Spring, and McLean because of their proximity to federal offices, transit, and top-ranked schools. During the pandemic, demand shifted to the exurbs—places like Loudoun, Prince William, and Frederick counties—because remote work made the long commute a non-factor. Now, with agencies requiring at least 3+ days in-office, a chunk of that population is moving back closer in, driving demand for Beltway-adjacent housing.

At the same time, not every affected federal employee or contractor is going to be forced to sell overnight. Some will find new jobs, move into other government roles, or simply rent out their homes rather than sell at a loss. The market won’t get flooded all at once. Yes, the outer suburbs are in for a correction because their COVID-era price surges weren’t sustainable, but inside the Beltway, prices should stay stable or even rise in high-demand areas. If you’re in a well-located area with good schools and easy D.C. access, you’re in a much better position than someone sitting on a COVID-inflated exurban home with a brutal commute.[/quote]

No correction in the suburbs or exurbs.  The only segment that is a little bit vulnerable right now is downtown townhouses and condos. Exurbs is the only place people can find affordability.[/quote]

This administration is going to eliminate at least 25% of jobs with the federal government. Even if you need to RTO, you’re an idiot if you buy/relocate right now. There’s a decent chance you will end up laid off in a city with many other educated but unemployed people.

Anyone on here not understanding how bad this will be for the real estate market is delusional.  Remember how badly the Great Recession was in certain cities? In those cities unemployment was around 10-15%. [/quote]

It is not impossible.  That is speculation though.  25% of federal jobs have not been cut.  [/quote]

And 80% of federal jobs are not in the DMV.[/quote]

If you are talking about GS jobs okay, but there are a lot of federal contractors in this area that will be impacted.[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics