Reply to Donald Trump to rally in VIRGINIA

Forum Index » Political Discussion

Reply to "Donald Trump to rally in VIRGINIA"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]See above - [b]last year at noon turnout was at 51%[/b]

[twitter]https://x.com/fairfaxvotes/status/1853860727813009709[/twitter]

[/quote]

Are you talking about 2023, and not 2020? We're definitely lagging compared to 2020, but that' because something like 53% of the votes were banked through EV during the pandemic year.[/quote]

They need to hit 79% to match 2020 turnout. If 18.7% have voted today through 12:30 pm, that's 2.87% of the total per hour (18.7%/6.5 hours). That would mean another 18.7% through 7 pm if the same number of voters vote for the rest of the day. [/quote]

This means Fairfax country votes will likely be down.  Big trouble for Harris [/quote]

How do you figure? 61.7 (% of votes as of 12:30) + 18.7 (assumed turnout between 12:30 - 7:00 PM) = 80.4%. That would be  higher than the turnout in 2020, when it was 79.4%

However, the number of RV in FFX County is about 16000 fewer than it was in 2020, so to have the same number of voters turn out, turnout needs to be about 81.4%.[/quote]

I'm pretty sure the 61.7% includes both early and in-person, so FFX was at 61.7% total as of 12:30 while they were at 51% total in 2023. So higher than last year at this time, but of course last year was not a Presidential election year. Bottom line is this probably isn't enough info to infer anything one way or the other, but one thing we can be almost certain of is that this year compared to 2020 there are going to be a lot more Democrats voting in person than 2020 when we were in the height of the pre-vaccine pandemic, and compared to 2020 there have probably been a lot more Republicans voting early, because in 2020 Trump was demonizing mail-in votes. [/quote]

Your numbers are incorrect.

noon to noon comparison:
2020: 51% early + 9.9% day of = 60.9%
2024: 43% early + 18.7% day of = 61.7%

The higher day of numbers had already made up for the lower early numbers by noon so Fairfax is on track to beat 2020 turnout. 
[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics