Reply to Federal Reserve: signs abound that housing market is entering bubble territory

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Oh. You're a COVID denier. That does not help you.

We bought last year and are not "getting palpitations", because we bought a house we can afford that we're happy to stay in for decades. We couldn't wait 2-3 years to buy and if prices do drop it won't be right away. It never makes sense to try to time the market. Buy something you like and can afford when you are ready.[/quote]
Not a COVID "denier" at all. I was as worried as anybody else during the height of it, especially since I have young kids. However, again, I analyze things for a living and my analysis even then was that there's a lot of unnecessary hysteria, panic and our politicians didn't help to quell that. That said:

"we bought a house we can afford that we're happy to stay in for decades" - Good for you! That's how it [i]should[/i] be.
"We couldn't wait 2-3 years to buy" - Understood. Each family situation is different.
"if prices do drop it won't be right away" - See...now we're getting into opinions again. Why do you think they won't drop "right away"? Anything to back that up?
"It never makes sense to try to time the market" - That's asinine. Markets are ALWAYS about timing (and prices to a degree). Sometimes prices may be high, but the timing is still right, but more often than not, the luxury of time gives you room to analyze things objectively, not make rash, emotional decisions, especially for one of the biggest financial transactions in an average person's life.
"Buy something you like and can afford when you are ready" - Absolutely true. However, I can promise you that a large number of RE transactions in the last two years were not made with that mindset. My analysts are already pointing to lots of data showing "flippers" who bought in the last two years (two years is critical...the whole tax write-off thing) trying to find a greater fool as soon as the two year period was over.

[/quote]

On average people who try to time the market fail. Of course timing matters, it's just not realistic to expect the typical consumer to be able to do so effectively. As we know the ",experts" all have different opinions so there is no objective information to base such a decision on.

The reason I think prices won't drop right away is because in the DMV there is still a lot of demand for homes and until people start losing their jobs, those buyers will not go away. [/quote]

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