Reply to Question about re zoning elementary schools in S. Arlington

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Neighborhoods can and do get split. It’s about planning unit. Look at Columbia Heights. It goes to several schools already.

As a side note it’s nice to see that N Arlington’s plans to send long branch kids to Fleet to make more room for themselves at Long branch and ASFS is not part of the actual plan.

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I believe Alcova does have multiple planning units; if so, they could very easily send the eastern part (which includes Gilliam Place) to Fleet and retain the western part at Barcroft.  But I don't think that will leave very many kids from Alcova at Barcroft to help.  It is much more likely they take only the small northern piece and send it to Fleet.  I'm not sure whether that is a separate PU.[/quote]

Alcova has 4 planning units. 2 little ones across from Fleet, which are mostly getting zoned there. The big one that includes the Foreign Service building, and a big one along Col Pike, where Gilliam will be.[/quote]

Thanks. Here are some numbers and contest.

The planning unit for Gilliam Place is 37050. The current (2017-18) k-5 estimate for that PU is 66, which makes sense given that the planning unit is currently almost entirely SFH. Whatever the estimate is for one or two years out should be higher than 66, with the addition of Gilliam Place.

The Berkeley is PU 48960. The Berkeley is the planning unit, actually. In 2107-18, APS said there were 36 k-5 students in the unit. That building will have at least 100 k-5 students when the expansion is complete.[/quote]

I think I read somewhere that APS only uses the current numbers and doesn't predict out? Which is how they are missing the huge wave of kids starting in 2019/2020. [/quote]

From watching the latest work sessions, they use trends data plus data from other sources (like births in Arl county from 5 years ago) to guess at K enrollment.

One thing they do not do, which was explicitly said, is they do not project FARMS/demographics. So I took that to mean that even if they know about AH developments coming online, they choose to remain agnostic about the demographics of those kids. [/quote]

Agnostic is not the right word. Politically expedient is what you mean.

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