Reply to Who said there isn't a North-South divide?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]
You can do that for middle and high school option programs but the original point the pp made was that elementary option schools help keep the UMC in south Arlington into middle and high school. The transfer reports don't really speak to that phenomenon.[/quote]

PP will need to provide some evidentiary support for that, because otherwise I'm not terribly convinced that someone who will fight tooth and nail to get their kid out of a 70% FARMS elementary school is going to be totally cool with a 50% FARMS high school. [/quote]

Hard to quantify, agree. Across SA elementary population as a whole, the farms rate is 50%. That's the same as Wakefield, which they all feed into. So it's reasonable to imagine that Wakefield draws roughly proportionately from SA elementaries. Obviously Henry and Oakridge are the biggest sources of Wakefield's non-farms, since they aren't title 1 schools. So it follows that other schools that aren't title 1 are also sources, and that means option schools. Wakefields nonfarms students must come from somewhere. 
[/quote]

That's not a necessary conclusion, in fact that data suggests an alternative explanation that a significant number of non-ED students families may continue to transfer out of their neighborhood schools through high school are are partially off-set by non-ED transfers into Wakefield. Looking again at the 2016-17 transfer data, of the 357 students who transferred out of Wakefield to other Arlington high schools, at bare minimum 139 of them (39% of transfers) were non-ED. More likely the number is closer to 216 (61% of transfers), if not higher.* Wherever the number falls between 139 or 216 (or more), though, it was definitely more than the 118 non-ED students who transferred into Wakefield that year.

* The 139 was calculated by looking at the number of students who transferred from Wakefield to each school and assumed that as many of them as possible were ED given the number of ED students who transferred to each high school. The 216 was calculated by assuming that ED transfers into each school came proportionally from each of the sending schools. So in the case of HB Woodlawn, which draws from all three schools, assume 48% of the ED transfers to HB came from Wakefield, because Wakefield's zone had roughly 48% of the ED population across the three schools at that point. When looking at transfers to W-L, assume transfers from Wakefield accounted for 79% of the ED transfers into W-L, because when looking at just Wakefield and Yorktown, Wakefield has about 79% of the total ED population.[/quote]

Yes, some non-ed students transfer out of SA/Wakefield, and others (a smaller number) from NA transfer in. But we're taking about a net of well under 200. There are about 1,000 non-ed students at Wakefield. The churn you describe simply isn't big enough to account for where most of those non-ED students came from. Perhaps some portion moved here after going to middle school a different school district. But the simplest explanation is that they came from SA elementary and then middle schools. [/quote]

None of this means elementary option programs are keeping UMC families in Wakefield. You haven’t shown us anything to support that claim.[/quote]

It's just not the perfect data for it, but I've supplied evidence that makes it a reasonable conclusion. Why do you think we even have option schools? THe first one, Key, was established to promote integration - that was its stated goal and APS own website says so. [/quote]

What evidence did you provide? All we've established is that even at the high school level, UMC students in SA are transferring out.[/quote]

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