Reply to CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Has any scientist or other reputable person ventured a guess as to when we all might be able to at least go back to school?  I know it is very hard to predict these things, but I wish I knew if it were more like June or more like September or more like a year from now?[/quote]

The Stanford Nobel laureate Levitt who accurately predicted the China peak times predicts US will peak in a few weeks and that US will return to normal far sooner than many are currently predicting. However, I tend to agree with PP that even if the situation stabilizes by May, it is unlikely many schools will open in order to demonstrate “an abundance of caution.” (Very popular catch phrase of late). Therefore I agree next Fall is likely.[/quote]

Please link that because I would like to see an explanation of how he can make that kind of prediction when some states are doing a lot and other states are doing nothing.  How does the whole country peak at once?  That sounds implausible.  Is it the same one that made the other bad predictions about the US? [/quote]

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/489415-nobel-laureate-predicts-us-will-experience
Published in other papers also ... 
[/quote]

That’s the one I thought you were talking about.  It was posted here several days ago.  The one you posted is undated but the others are about a week old.  I argued for many reasons (obvious reasons IMO) that he was wrong and was shot down because I don’t have a Nobel prize.  We are not like China.  That’s the number one reason.  It’s been several days since this article was posted originally and he’s already been proven wrong.  He was basing it on a single day drop which is about as useless as you can get.  He should know better than to use data like that to extrapolate anything.  Here’s the LA times article linked from your article.  Look at the chart in it for new infections per day.  He wasn’t just wrong when he said this - he was as wrong as anyone could possibly have been.  And I mean that, he could have traveled back in time from today or yesterday and knowing the future and given the least accurate prediction possible and that’s what he had.  Cases weren’t leveling off or even slowing down.  It was a blip in the data.  We are adding 10’s of thousands of cases a day now.  We have over 100k cases. We have more than anyone now.  Someone needs to call him out for this. 
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate?fbclid=IwAR162uNamWY9S2fKluAi-8oO1WilEw9nKanFg_XzSlKF5UE8HA83YkHQs-A

[/quote]
Most of the articles conveying Levitt’s view were published four days ago and I only read about it then. There were slightly less than 20,000 new US cases today but yes the US does have the unwanted distinction of having the most corona cases.

I already stated that you raised good points and Levitt’s view does not address the US patchwork aspect. You are right to point out that the divergent state approaches to enforcing social distancing adds unpredictability in general outcomes.

That said, US has some strong factors in its favor for weathering this viral plague relatively well. The US has youngest age population of the developed world. Age is one of most important factors in how well people recover from virus. US has a well fed population, relatively clean air, and good public cleanliness and hygiene. Some other countries that are far more crowded, and with far fewer hospital ICU beds and ventilators than the US (such as India) face much grimmer prospects for weathering this storm.

We are all in this huge mess together. God bless the heroes and heroines on the front lines in hospitals and grocery stores/ pharmacies.[/quote]

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