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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia and guarantee non nato status.[/quote]

What's ironic is that if Russia had simply left Ukraine alone in 2014, Ukraine today would likely be a pliant pro-Russia state as it was throughout the 90s and early 2000s. Sure it was a corrupt state - like Russia itself - but it was firmly in the Russian orbit. By seizing Donbass and Crimea and its largely ethnic Russian population, what remained of Ukraine became a unified, ethnically homogenous nationalist state. Zelenesky did not arise in a vacuum. And now, after a year of brutal war in which more than a 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died and numerous cities and towns like Mariupol and Marinka have been utterly destroyed, a negotiated land for peace deal has become politically impossible. Ukraine, unlike Russia, is a democracy. There is no politician in Ukraine who can deliver a deal in which Russia gets thousands of square kilometers of Ukrainian land and in return Ukraine gets... nothing. Not even a security guarantee. It's not happening in a democracy.

So to blithely say "Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia and guarantee non nato status" is completely unrealistic. It's like asking Americans to give up New England and Texas and quietly accept it. There is no realistic peace deal on the horizon between Russia and Ukraine. After all the devastation Russia has caused, Ukrainians are completely united. They will fight to the end. As the Spring offensive begins, hundreds of thousands of poorly trained and equipped Russian soldiers are going to die. This war ends when they finally turn on their officers and walk away from the killing fields - as they did in 1915 - and put a bullet in Putin's head. This is going to be a long, brutal summer and it will be a prelude to the unrest that will soon sweep through Russia as thousands of war-hardened, disillusioned, and often criminal war veterans return to their towns and villages. The chaos is only beginning.  [/quote]

Crimea and Donbas have been out of Ukraine's control for years.  It's not really a "loss" per se.  It's more like officiating the status quo.  But Russia should give up Kherson and Zaporozhye in return for a land connection to Crimea.

I am also mildly amused by the rhetorical device that describes soldiers alternately as "poorly trained and equipped" and "war-hardened criminal veterans" all in the same paragraph.[/quote]

A soldier that was useless on the battlefield can still be a terror in the village. And there will soon be thousands of them sweeping through the far reaches of Russia. Imagine if the US had emptied its prisons of murderers and rapists to fight a brutal unjust war and the survivors - violent felons and now combat hardened - were suddenly released back into their communities, untouchable by the law. Russia is unleashing chaos. And remember many of the Wagner fighters are not ethnic Russians. The troubles are only beginning..Ukraine is just the prelude. [/quote]

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