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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]To my understanding, the in-bounds and out-of-bounds pools are not merged after initial selection, except, perhaps, in following years (i.e., starting in 7th).  Of course, there is almost no reason for an in-bounds family to reject the offer, so getting off their wait list ends up being harder.

Even with that, though, and with, say a 40% offer rejection rate for out-of-bounds, as some prefer to stay local due to commute, friends, quality of local programming, etc., the additional opportunity to be offered an out-of-bounds spot after 3 rounds would be about an additional 6% probability (identified for the pool) or about another percent (all students), for total opportunity of about 16% (identified) or a bit under  2.5% (all students) for out-of-catchment folks when comparing to about 68% (identified) or 9% (all students) from the TPMS catchment, assuming a similar 13% proportion of students placed in the pool.

Numbers not exact, of course -- back of the envelope.

They did away with the brief period where they considered local cohort (if there were enough students who would be at your local school to manage a separate enriched class) when they went to the lottery.  The first lottery pool had many more in it than last year's/this year's because they threw a very wide net, not having confidence in the highly-pandemic impacted data that year.  They also did away with ability measures like CogAT, but that is another subject.[/quote]

I have kids in the program, and it seems like they improved their selection process in the second year. This is completely anecdotal and maybe even wishful since I don't have data just observations my kids relayed. [/quote]

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