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[quote=Anonymous]The State Dept and the Whelan family understand that Paul Whelan was not going to be released in this trade.  As Biden said in his press conference he had a choice of bringing 1 American home or none.  He made the decision to bring home one American.

Bout was a serious problem when he was convicted.  He was around 40 and at the height of his connections and reputation.  But he's now 56, been out of the black market for 15 years and has lost most of his connections who have moved on with their business.  It's going to take him years to get back, get his life under control and he'll be in his 60's before he could go back to business.  If he tries to go back, he'll be 20 years out of the business, in a business that takes years to get rolling and ramp up your connections.  He's pretty much washed up in the black market.  At this point, his release is a political win for Putin, but that's about it.  He's not likely going to be a big player in the arms market even if he can possibly get back into it.  He wasn't worth that much other than political capitol, same for Griner.

Paul Whelan, on the other hand, is worth more to the Russians.  He is a suspected and convicted spy (not saying that means he's guilty, but he was prosecuted and sentenced as guilty).  It will take a lot more concessions by the US government to negotiate his release.  Biden and the State department have both said that they will continue working to secure his release, but the current deal did not give them enough leverage to buy his release.  They'll need something bigger.

The Biden administration made the right call in this case.  And the Whelan family, while disappointed, understood that.[/quote]

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