Reply to No change in coivd cases and deaths after spring break and no masks wtf

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]From another thread:

https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/coronavirus/dashboard/

"Been tracking 4 cases and higher at schools. Normally the list is only 10 to 20 schools long.

MCPS data 4/19/22 reported 812 new cases in the past 10 days and 313 active quarantines. At this time, 41% of MCPS schools (86 out of 209) schools have 4 or more infections and 17 have 10 or more infections in the past 10 days. (Note that last week and this Monday was Spring break, so the last 10 days is really just yesterday and today?)"[/quote]

As of 5:49 AM, 4/22, that number is slowly increasing.  1035 reported cases.

I know multiple people with covid right now.[/quote]

And not a single peep about virtual. We've finally achieved end game. Feels great to be in this spot.[/quote]

Mcps was clear all year that they would be ignoring Covid.   We have not come close to the end game.   [/quote]

You do you. From my POV, it's finally over. [/quote]

It’s far from over.  [/quote]

For you I suppose. For me, it's been over for quite a while, and it's great seeing other parts of society (schools, planes, etc.) getting on board with that.[/quote]

So you don't care at all if large numbers of people become sick at the same time? [/quote]

NP. Define "sick". Relatively few people are getting hospitalized these days.[/quote]

That's the point. The CDC has chosen to focus on hospitalizations, ignoring the fact that increases in cases have ripple effects everywhere through worker absences, student absences, and continued spread throughout the community. I have a teen sick with COVID right now. He is missing an entire week of school, assuming that he feels better next week, which at this point, we don't know, because he's pretty sick.  He will miss work all weekend, and all of us in the house run the risk of testing positive and missing more school and our work extending through next week.

You can pretend that cases don't matter, but each case disrupts more than just the life of the person infected.  [/quote]

Look, the point is that you cannot really "prevent" cases in the long run, you can only delay them. That's important if hospitals are getting overwhelmed ("flatten the curve"), but not otherwise. With the virus not going away, you will have to face the disruption of an infection eventually. The CDC has recognized this reality and therefore adjusted their metrics. I'm not sure why you think you know better than the CDC what's important.[/quote]

Well, I'm not an expert, but in case you missed it, [b]scores of actual experts disagree with the CDC's new metrics[/b]. Any one of us can take measures to try to "prevent" cases right now, and collectively we could all live our lives with some caution in a way that would minimize illness and disruption that comes if too many people get sick at the same time. We aren't in a major surge, and hopefully, we won't be, but with cases creeping back up, school, work, businesses, and health care will be disrupted again even if hospitals aren't overwhelmed. [/quote]

Sure, there are scores of actual Covidian experts who touted the CDC and "following the science" until the CDC and "the science" stopped agreeing with them. Scores of other actual experts agree with the CDC's revised approach, which is taking the present reality into account.

And yes, you can try to "prevent" getting sick in the moment, at whatever cost you think is worth it. But you will likely catch it sooner or later anyway, and then the cost-benefit calculation for your precautions will look differently in hindsight. As long as hospitals aren't getting overwhelmed (and they rarely were during this pandemic), people can reasonably disagree whether it matters that large numbers of people test positive at the same time, and whether drawing it out would be a better idea. The CDC is clearly thinking along those lines.[/quote]

The CDC is not following any science - it is making a policy decision, based in part on science about the circumstances in which mandatory public health measures should be imposed or at least considered. That's completely different from what is in the best interest of individuals [b]or communities[/b]. The science isn't commanding as many people as possible to get infected with COVID right now. That's ridiculous. Every expert, every single one, is saying that it is better to avoid becoming infected in the first place. That's indisputable. The nuance, as you mention, is what you are willing to do avoid infection, and that depends on risk factors and risk assessment. There's no science that says don't wear a high-quality mask in crowded indoor spaces, or to try to be maskless in as many crowded indoor spaces as possible, preferably with people who are infected and contagious.

Public health experts also tout a healthy diet and regular exercise but don't require that everyone act accordingly. That doesn't mean that science shows that eating only processed food while on a couch 24/7 is the key to health.[/quote]

Actually, the CDC is making a policy decision that they think is in the best interest of the community, which means dropping dropping restrictions that impose costs on those communities. You are right that that is different from what may be in the best interest of individuals, especially high-risk ones, and nowhere do they say, and neither did I, that people shouldn't try to avoid Covid if they feel it is worth the cost. What I am saying that they will likely not be able to avoid it forever, which is something even Anthony Fauci has acknowledged, and which is what I mean by "delaying" vs. "preventing". And while science obviously isn't "commanding everyone catch Covid right now" (what an absurd strawman), it  actually does show at this point that Covid will be hard to avoid in the long run. So yes, while experts are still saying that it is obviously better not to get infected, they are also acknowledging that it will be impossible in the long run. Given that reality, people will rightfully make different cost-benefit calculations.

This whole conversation arose because someone was questioning the wisdom of current CDC guidance, and I made an argument why it is in fact wise. I was not arguing that it doesn't make sense for anyone at all to try and avoid catching Covid for as long as possible, only that it doesn't make sense for everyone to restrict their lives at this point.

And your analogy to a healthy lifestyle is a good one with regard to the question of mandates, but not with regard to avoiding Covid, because a healthy lifestyle doesn't come with the same costs, and has long-term benefits that aren't going to be negated as the benefits of your Covid precautions will be when you catch the virus anyway. Your insinuation that my argument implies a healthy lifestyle is futile misses the point entirely.[/quote]

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