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Reply to "Military observations on Ukraine invasion"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]At what point does China look at the mess Russia is mired in, with fully half their army ground forces committed and suffering 8-10% casualties, and decide that right NOW is the best time to take Siberia? They’ve had plans of doing this for decades. They even call Siberia the “northern resource area” in internal discussions. If I were Xi Jinping, I’d go for it right now. Start with a decapitating nuclear strike, accept some losses to a Russian retaliatory strike, and send my entire army into Siberia. [/quote] Seems unlikely. I think it's more likely they leverage Russia's economic mess to get lots of favorable terms on buying oil, gas and other commodities from Russia. Russia has little choice. China is the only major buyer left for them. Unfortunately, I think that's the weak part of the western strategy. We're likely to drive Russia into China's arms and make them a vassal state of China.[/quote] If this were to keep up, we would sanction anyone dealing in Russian oil which would mean China would have to give up its international trade with the US. If forced to choose they would choose the US.[/quote] We are not going to sanction China. It would be way too disruptive. The sanctions against Russia are going to be massively disruptive. Adding China to that mix would multiply that times 100.[/quote]
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