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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]No, schools don't turn around quickly -that's pie in the sky thinking. It took Brent a decade to become majority in-boundary and Maury still doesn't have lots of high SES kids in the upper grades.  Ludlow-Taylor actually lost most of its in-boundary families under Principal Cobbs, who stuck around for seven long years.  I see a few gentrifiers toughing things out at Payne in K in the fall, and maybe 1st grade the year after, with few (or no) high SES families in the upper grades for another eight or nine years.  Can you wait that long, OP?[/quote]I seriously doubt it will take 10 years. Why? Because there aren't enough charter seats available, and not enough affordable inventory in the areas in which former Hill residents like to purchase. [/quote]It has taken longer than that to turn around Garrison around. there will always be plenty of inventory in the 'burbs...[/quote]+100.  I find that relative newcomers to the city, and parents of toddlers who haven't been involved in DCPS schools yet, tend to dramatically underestimate what it takes to make a school gentrifier friendly past the early childhood years.   There are boatloads of charter seats available, just not at schools that aren't majority FARMs.[/quote]I find that many of the "experienced" people underestimate how different the current situation is than it was just a couple years ago. The demand for seats at the desirable schools exceeds the number available by more than it ever has. If those families that don't get the preferred OOB seats in the lottery start using the other schools in high enough numbers there's no guarantee the schools will change but it is a opportunity those schools haven't seen before. I don't think anyone knows the answer but comparing it to the challenges flipping Brent or Maury isn't completely valid. I'm not underestimating the challenge but I don't think you are acknowledging that the current dynamics are different. [/quote]
Brent and Maury have affluent catchment areas and a dearth of public housing, so "flipping" them was relatively easy.  Ludlow Taylor is in a similar position, albeit the old guard was able to hang on a little longer.

Payne, JO Wilson, Tyler, Amidon and Minor are not as ripe for the picking.

So yes, the current dynamicsis different, but the challenge of assembling a cohort remains the same.  The fulcrum for "flipping" Payne is in a different and more difficult place.[/quote]

I appreciate your thought out comments but am curious why you feel Payne is in a different place. The shelter at DC general was discussed up thread (but with dated stats) and from the data available it didn't appear Paynes homeless percentage is higher than the others trying to flip. Many of the DCUM threads about bowsers plan for the new shelters have comments that most of the shelter kids are below school age, but I haven't seen verifiable data for that claim. Is there something entrenched in the staff from the 2011 failed flip that you are referring to? The facility should be nice enough by the end of the renovation.

Finding the cohort you refer to seems like it has to start in ECE because the older inbounds high SES kids for any of these schools have either hit the lottery or moved. It looks like Payne has the ECE critical mass and that more people than ever want to stay in the city. The traditional escape places in MCPS and FCPS have more budget questions and schools that are packed fuller than previously. And most of the housing stock for Payne is priced when making a jump to NW is still a reach that takes a decent chuck of money or a jump in mortgage. So none of that means it will happen but the conditions seem stronger than ever before.

If you have ideas of what else helps please post. I'm sure there are folks involved reading this and ever step forward these schools take helps all of us. [/quote]

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