Reply to Fairness of Common Lottery?

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Reply to "Fairness of Common Lottery?"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]

So really what the algorithim (sp?) should do is (preferences aside for the moment) run a lottery for everyone who ranked school A #1, then everyone who ranked school B #1, etc.  Then after all the #1 rankings are run, they do another round (starting with whatever number they left off at at the end of the #1 rankings) for those who ranked the school #2.  That way wouldn't you fill up all the most desireable schools only with people who ranked it first?  And order the waitlist in groupings by where others ranked it?  It would make the rankings much more meaningful.  Would that lead to 12 separate lotteries for each school?  That sounds like a technical nightmare but hey, computers are smart and can do just about anything, so isn't it possible?[/quote]

[b]The problem with that process is that if you don't get your number one you go down to the bottom of the list and you don't get another whack until the #2 round.[/b] So it's a real risk to put a popular school number one, if you don't get it by the time the lottery comes back to you everything is taken and you get nothing. So you might be tempted to put a "safety school" number one. But what if you get a good number and it's wasted on the safety school?

With the current system, you rank your choices in your true order of preference, and you get into the highest-ranked one that is available when your number comes up. No fiddling with the order changes your chances of getting picked. Since there is no "safety school" strategy, overall more people end up higher preference schools.

The problem with the lottery isn't its fairness. It is as fair as can be. The problem is the lack of good choices. People aren't ending up with no good choices because good seats are going unfilled or some children are occupying more than one. People are ending up with no good choices because there aren't enough for everyone. No amount of fiddling with the lottery is going to change that.

I'll add that before the common lottery schools ran their own lotteries, and there were unfilled seats at desirable schools. That has largely been eliminated.[/quote]

I don't understand this.  If you don't get matched in round 1 for your #1, you go on the waitlist, just like now.  The difference/advantage to this proposal above is that you still will always have a better waitlist number than anyone who ranked it #2.  And if you're not admitted, the algorithm keeps going down your list to your safeties, although if there were enough people who ranked your safety #1 you won't get in there either.  But that's still a better system than the current system, because currently if you have a great random lottery number, even if you don't get into your #1, 2 or 3 you can get matched with your #4, even though lots of people may have put your #4 as #1.  But no matter what order I rank schools in, if my random lottery number is crappy, I don't have a chance at my #1 school.  Under the current system you can still end up with people at their #4 or #8 school, even though someone else with a worse # ranked your #8 as #1 or #2.[/quote]

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