Reply to Federal employee, how do you choose your TSP investment?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]

Well, now you are talking about timing the market rather than choosing an investment allocation. If you think you can time the market and move in and out of stocks and bonds to make more money, fine. But for everyone who gets this right there is someone who gets this wrong - every buyer has a seller. Many people who went into bonds when the market crashed missed out on the recovery.[/quote]

No, you're wrong there.  You again describe something that is not what I'm describing.

Every method of allocation is "market timing" in some way but I reject the common perception of moving around frequently to time the market.  
What I'm talking about is the model I mentioned above, see tsppilot.com (again, I have no affiliation other than as a paying customer who's done well enough in 15 yrs with my TSP account to retire at 58), which makes infrequent adjustments based on an analysis model that has worked over time (contrary to any "market timing" claim I've ever seen).

You may call that "market timing" -- but it's nothing like any market timing model I've seen.  In the larger sense it is "market timing" just as any decision, including choosing to hold no G fund, etc., is a "market timing" call.  The only way any of us never engages in market timing is to select one allocation model, set it & forget it.  That's a pretty weak investment strategy, as time has proven.[/quote]

Market timing is moving between asset classes on the basis of your assessment of market conditions. That is clearly what you are doing - it is not about how frequently you do it.

The only alternative is not to select one allocation and never change it -  it could also be to have a pre-determined strategy based on your age and which may incorporate rebalancing.

See the attached on market timing:
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Video:Bogleheads%C2%AE_investment_philosophy#Never_try_to_time_the_market_.28Rule_.235.29

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