Reply to Federal employee, how do you choose your TSP investment?

Forum Index » Money and Finances

Reply to "Federal employee, how do you choose your TSP investment?"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]NP. I think PP meant FERS.[/quote]

Yes I was talking about the FERS annuity.  When I retire I'll get 42% which is actually close to 50% since there are no payroll taxes out of it.  Then there is social security.  That's 2 separate fixed income retirements.  The idea that I would be using the G fund seems a bit out there.  I can survive the drops in the market.  I won't need to withdrawal at retirement anyway.[/quote]

Just as a real-world example ... by heeding an advisory recommendation to move things out of equity funds prior to the '08 dive, we averted a loss of approx. $170-200k in our TSP account had we left it fully in equities.

With the growth in the account from '09-14, it was up more than $250k in that period.  Losing approx., say, 30% of the growth of $180k plus the actual loss of the $180k that was averted, that is $200k that is in our account today because there was a reallocation to about 55%G in '08 before the big dive.  That's the difference between a $800k TSP balance and a $550k balance = real money to most people.

So it can make a significant difference.  I've been retired for 2 yrs. and won't have to touch the TSP account for years and have other assets so for us it's not so critical, but if your TSP account performance matters, as it does to many, many people, going all in on equities and just riding it out is a proven less than optimal (to put it mildly) way to go.

[/quote]

Well, now you are talking about timing the market rather than choosing an investment allocation. If you think you can time the market and move in and out of stocks and bonds to make more money, fine. But for everyone who gets this right there is someone who gets this wrong - every buyer has a seller. Many people who went into bonds when the market crashed missed out on the recovery.[/quote]

No, you're wrong there.  You again describe something that is not what I'm describing.

Every method of allocation is "market timing" in some way but I reject the common perception of moving around frequently to time the market.  
What I'm talking about is the model I mentioned above, see tsppilot.com (again, I have no affiliation other than as a paying customer who's done well enough in 15 yrs with my TSP account to retire at 58), which makes infrequent adjustments based on an analysis model that has worked over time (contrary to any "market timing" claim I've ever seen).

You may call that "market timing" -- but it's nothing like any market timing model I've seen.  In the larger sense it is "market timing" just as any decision, including choosing to hold no G fund, etc., is a "market timing" call.  The only way any of us never engages in market timing is to select one allocation model, set it & forget it.  That's a pretty weak investment strategy, as time has proven.[/quote]

Oh god I love the fake disclaimer.  You totally work for them.  I'm not visiting that site and I hope no one else does.  Instead of giving vague explanations with promised results, why not just explain the whole thing?  You don't work for the site right?  Right?  RIGHT?[/quote]

LOL, Mr. or Ms. Know It All,

In fact, I do not work for them, never have, I just pay them whatever the annual subscription cost is, I read the advisories, I take the advice or not as I choose (mostly do).

But thanks for your snark, it's very entertaining to read as you sit there cluelessly looking for a reason to up the snark.  :roll:

I know it's probably hard for you to latch on to the concept that someone might actually have success and be willing to pass on some information to others.  But go ahead, stay in your L Fund heaven if you want.  Good luck.[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics