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[quote=Anonymous]From the July 14, 2014 work session to discuss the Facilities and Transportation Operational Expectations Monitoring Report -- starting on page 14 where projections are detailed:

http://www.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/files/9LSRPY6EF2FA/$file/FTS%20OEs%20Monitoring%20Report.pdf

[quote]The larger challenge is the 5 year projections especially over the past 8 years. With the onset of the recession in 2007 the out migration patterns which we had experienced suddenly reversed leading to significant discrepancies between projections made during one cycle and the ultimate enrollment during another.

. . .

The following chart overlays the 2, 3 and 4 year projections over the actual enrollment. There is little question that projections made closer to the target school year will be more accurate because of increased data and information. This chart also displays the point in which we had sufficient information to increase our projection accuracy.

. . .

In addition to the difficulty we experience with projecting general education, AAP and SPED students, the annual transfer of students into and within the system creates an additional level of complexity. The dashboard identifies in specific detail the number of students who are moving from school to school in various categories such as AA and SPED but there is a general category called Transfers.

. . .

The large quantity of students who attend a school which is not their base school is nearly 10% of the total population. It can be very difficult to anticipate when or how many students attend a different school which impacts our ability to accurately predict on a school by school basis. As evidenced by the first chart, the Planning Office only missed by 2 students out of 151,000 in our General Membership.

We are hopeful that the planning software currently under development will assist us in more accurately projecting on a school by school basis.
[/quote]

full agenda item:
http://www.boarddocs.com/vsba/fairfax/Board.nsf/goto?open&id=9LKTZ56C95F3

[/quote]

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