Reply to FCPS Proposal to close down AAP Centers at Greenbriar West ES and Carson MS

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Reply to "FCPS Proposal to close down AAP Centers at Greenbriar West ES and Carson MS"

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The problem with the FPAC recommendations is that they are based on enrollment projections that they have not scrutinized and that historically have not been accurate beyond a one-year period (and sometimes not even then).  The School Board should not change center assignments or school boundaries without subjecting those projections to far greater scrutiny.  Otherwise the Staff simply games the projections to support whatever outcome it desires.

The 2008 redistricting to South Lakes is a prime example.  South Lakes is now the most overcrowded high school in the county (and getting an addition that had not been planned) all because the School Board refused to listen to parents who pointed out that the school's enrollment would rebound without a boundary change.  In other instances, the Staff projections have greatly overestimated the number of students who would be attending schools.  [/quote]

I agree, but like transportation, those projections drive everything. My working theory is that they are absolutely terrible in high FARMs, high mobility schools. Are they as bad in the higher SES areas?[/quote]

Some of the FPAC recommendations involve Langley and McLean.

If you went back five years, you'd see that FCPS significantly under-estimated what the 2013 enrollment would be at McLean and Marshall, and significantly over-estimated the 2013 enrollment at Langley.  Now FCPS has swung completely to the opposite extreme, with projections that suggest that Langley will hemorrage students, even though the enrollment there is up this year over last year, and McLean will have over 2500 students in a few years, which is highly unlikely.

On that basis, FPAC proposes to move single-family neighborhoods in the McLean district to Langley, on the pretext of eliminating an attendance island, even though [b](1) the students who would be affected live closer to McLean than Langley, and (2) Langley would keep gobbing up stable, single-family neighborhoods zoned for other schools, just as it did previously with Herndon.  [/b]

I don't think they really have a clue, and simply are looking for ways to fill Langley up with students to justify the expansion of the school's capacity as part of the renovation.   Notably, the senior position in the department within FCPS responsible for projections and planning has now been vacant for some time.  [/quote][/quote]

While technically true, that the current McLean Island is closer to McLean than Langley.  It is isn't like the island is close to either school.  Plus, part of the McLean Island is not single family residence, but mid rise  and low rise condos in Tyson's.  If anything, it would add a little SES diversity to Langley.  [/quote]

If you want the closest HS, Marshal might be the closest to some of the current McLean island. [/quote]

The nearest high schools to the western part of the island are South Lakes and Madison; the nearest schools to the eastern part are Marshall and McLean.  In a sense, it's only an "island" because FCPS administratively redistricted part of Tysons from McLean to Marshall when the Spring Gate apartments were being built and Marshall had more capacity than McLean.  In any case, the neighborhoods are further from Langley than they are from McLean.

If the projections were solid, and Langley has more space, then great, but I'm not convinced the projections are very accurate.  On its "Capacity Dashboard," FCPS has Langley down to 1728 students by 2018 (compared to about 2000 students this year), but McLean up to 2352 students by 2018 (compared to around 2070 this year).  I have a hard time seeing how those numbers could be right.  The freshman class at Langley this year had over 500 students and was bigger than the freshman classes at McLean, Marshall or Madison, and a lot of McLean neighborhoods are seeing teardowns where $800K houses get torn down and replaced with expensive houses purchased by people who send their kids to privates.

You make a good point that moving some apartments (at this point, it's really One Park Crest, the Fountains at McLean, and the Rotonda) to Langley might slightly increase the school's diversity, but it seems to me the whole exercise warrants careful scrutiny.   And, of course, if FCPS starts moving Longfellow neighborhoods to Cooper, and moves the Langley AAP kids at Kilmer and Longfellow over to Cooper, will Cooper have enough space to accommodate them? [/quote]

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