Reply to MRIS list of "hottest" DC neighborhoods (based on days on market)

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I don't need to calm down, thank you very much. Faulty reasoning should never be tolerated, regardless of topic. You should hold yourself to a higher standard. You still don't understand how a median is constructed. You cannot just look at homes for sale right now. That's missing the entire point: YOU NEED TO INCLUDE THE HOMES THAT HAVE ALREADY SOLD.

(All per Redfin, so caveats implied:) There are 12 homes that sold within the last 6 months. There are currently 9 homes for sale in Spring Valley. (One of these has been on the market for 1 day.) There are likely several additional homes that are under contract and show up as neither "Sold" nor "For Sale." (There is at least one of them: the previously posted home that apparently went under contract in 6 days.) An MLS listing service would have access to all of the homes, including pending homes. Redfin misses some homes, such as the $6.8m house on Woodway that sold in a day. (It was probably never listed.)

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][/quote]
I have to admit you are scaring me a little even by DCUM standard. I am not surprise you did not read my post fully. I do mention the sold houses.
Let's say we are not looking at the same list because on my list there are more houses that sold in over 10 days. Now I should stop wasting my time with crazy people and get my life back.

It's the MRIS blog, so they get their data from, wait for it, MRIS.[/quote]
Thanks.  :roll: I was being ironic because their data are off. [/quote][/quote]
Thanks for your kind reply. I have a master in Probability and Stats so I think I know what a median is, that's why I was saying they can't be right about SV.
The article is full of errors anyway, an intern probably wrote it.[/quote]

Sure you do. How's that old adage go? If you say it in an anonymous online forum, then it must be true.

Your courses should have covered different measures of centrality. Should have. Sometimes this is presumed knowledge from undergrad, so you are forgiven for not understanding these concepts.

Survivorship bias and other sample composition issues should have been covered too. Rule number 1: understand your data generating process. Survivorship bias is causing a sample selection problem here that's preventing you from making valid inference. If there are 1,000 houses sitting forever, but another 1,001 houses that sold within 10 days, it's unsurprising that you would have the impression that so many homes are sitting forever. Since homes that sell quickly are often removed from Redfin/etc. once they go under contract, your sample of data almost necessarily omits these homes and is biased to show only homes that are sitting. The quick sellers simply don't show up unless you're sampling in real time, which you are not. It remains entirely true that the median home in this example sells within 10 days despite all appearances to the contrary.

But, hey, it's easier to blame the computer ("I don't know; that's what the computer says...") or slander an intern for the limits of your own knowledge and reasoning. [/quote]

Listen, you seriously need to calm down a bit. You are taking this issue way too seriously. Did you write the article?
Let's have a quick look at the SV market right now. There are about roughly 13 houses on sale right now. In the extremely unlikely event that they all go under contract tomorrow, we will get a median time on the market of about 50 days. Because we know that they won't all go under contract tomorrow, it is safe to assume that right now in SV the median time on the market is more than 50 days therefore more than 10 days.

And before you jump on my throat again, I just wanted to add that even if you add the houses that were sold quickly during those last 60 days, you are still far from a median of 10 days on the market.[/quote][/quote][/quote]

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