Reply to Remember the recent bubble and crash -- it could happen again

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Just trying to understand the underlying factors that has OP concerned.

Pockets if the market do seem a little crazy, but I think that has more to do with pent-up demand and very limited inventory. And rising interest rates.

I think in a few more cycles these pockets will even out, but the bottom won't fall nationally like it did before.

Is OP aware of anything more at play than that?  [/quote]

" pockets in the market are a little crazy riht now " because the OP has promised developers an" up zoning" of just about every residential neighborhood in the  city, except G'town.

The developers are, therefore, out there in residential neighborhoods outbidding  professional couples by maybe a 100K over the highest bid , paying cash with 24 hr settlement.

Then they hold the property and wait for the zoning re-write to go through so they can gut it, and build their "pop up" little boxes of  condo units and sell each of the 2-4 condos  for about $650 ( maybe 250K less than paid for the entire house  ( $900K)

Don't believe me, read the real estate sales and get out the property assessment OTR mailed you in March.

Property assessments went up on average of  20% this year  in residential neighborhoods of the city. For most home owners that means some home on their block was bought for 100K more than last year's assessed value , and therefore THIS YEAR everyone on the street's assess went up 100K.

Keep in mind , this is BEFORE the zoning re-write is passed. Just wait until you get next years' assess after the zoning re-write is PASSED

10% cap with homestead deduction will hold many in their homes for a few years, but eventually in 7-10 years, home owners ,not 65 or older, will be "taxed out" of their homes, their homes will be chopped up into  little condos and then the 800K 1 bedroom condo in DC will become the " new normal" as will the 10K a year property tax bill on remaining single family homes.

This is a real estate agent's wet dream , which is why they JUMP to bid up on a house, and why they and developers constitte 50% of teh campaighn donation money going into Mayor's race and City Council elections this year.( they are covering all the candidates) Developers will slap the NIMBY label on anyone who challenges them . The OP's zoning re-write is their new best friend , akin to the easy loan approvals and cheap credit of the late 90's up to 2007 era.

BOTH were/ are poor social policy based purely on GREED. Perhaps that is what the origianl poster is sensing….For which , of coarse , a poster immediately slammed him/her , alledging that he/she " did not understand basic economics" Actually, the OP's sense is dead on target, the market is skewed to one interest , and just like in late 1990's-2007 its very poor social policy. It may not result in a " bubble burst" , but it will in 10-20 destroy the 100 acheivemnt of the McMillian plan in term sof making DC a city charcaterized by lower buildings letting in air and light , large set backs allowing for tree lined street scape , and single family home onwership near in to highly competetive jobs in DC.

But the developers who frequent this board ( and OP staff as well) will jump to SLAP the NIMBY label on anyone who wants to dialogue on this. Developers even posted a 7 foot tall  NIMBY billboard at Columbia and Ontario Place because  the home owners on that block are going through proper channels to try to protect their street from pop ups.

??? is do you want to live in a small condo box of an apartment with cheap dry wall construction and chipping " high end bamboo flooring " or do you prefer a real house ?

Do you like the " air and might" of your 2-3 story residential street or do you think its just fine that every home on your block get a pop up ( in some cases 5 more stories) just so some developer can make a killing.

Its a worthy dialogue, but before the  afternoon is out the developers will be rushing to close the conversation on this forum.

[/quote]

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