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[quote=takoma][quote=jsteele][quote=takoma]Based on this poll, the 2011 special election, and general feelings, my guess is that either Frumin or Silverman has a very low chance of winning as the race stands, maybe 5 or 10%.  That's chance of winning, not percentage of vote.  If one pulled out (quickly) and endorsed the other, I think the remaining one would have support pretty close to Bonds and Mara, so they'd have nearly equal chances to win, say 30%.  If the two were to do a coin toss to choose one to drop out, they would have equal chances to get that 30% probability, so each would have a 15% chance.  From a strategic point of view, the coin toss is a better strategy for each of them, and I think they are nuts not to do it.

The factor I am omitting, of course, is the public's reaction, especially their supporters.  Would people see it as an indication that they were not serious, or would most people understand it as a reasonable move by each one of them to enhance the probability of election?

Or do you all just think I'm nuts?[/quote]

I'm a bit shocked that you would base this post on the poll which had Silverman and Mara tied.

As I've said before in this thread, I think the suggestion that this is a "Bonds vs Mara" election is a fallacy. Of course Bonds and Mara want you to believe this because it suits their purposes. Of course the Washington Post -- which has endorsed Mara in four elections -- wants you to believe this because it fits its purpose as well.

It is also a mistake to read too much into the 2011 election. In 2011, Mara did not face strong opposition in Ward 3. He received nearly half the votes in that ward -- 4091. That's out of a total of 11851 votes he received city-wide. Frumin could easily take a large chunk out of that. Really, for Mara to have any chance at all, he needs voters to abandon Frumin. Hence, the constant flow of anti-Frumin posts in this forum originating in the Mara camp.

If you wanted to portray the election as Bonds vs Frumin-Mara-Silverman (just putting the names alphabetical) I might agree. But, I don't believe there is sufficient evidence to declare this a Bonds vs. Mara election. So, any coin toss needs to include Mara.[/quote]
I don't put a lot of weight on that poll, and I don't see it as Bonds vs Mara.  But I don't entirely ignore the poll, which actually argues against it being Bonds vs Mara.  The main reason I left Mara out is that I figured that he, as the only Republican, would be unlikely to negotiate with two Dems, while I see Silverman and Frumin competing for the same "progressive" vote.  Mathematically, though, there might well be other combinations that would work, including a Bonds/Frumin/Silverman/Zukerberg coin toss Dem primary.  However, that would give each at most a 25% shot at the win, and Bonds is probably higher than that now.

I have not been through all combinations, and it's probably not worth it since my initial probability estimates are really not much more than guesses.  To be honest, the Frumin/Silverman combo may be motivated mostly by the fact that I happen to be wavering mostly between those two, and it looks to me that it would actually be a win-win for them as well as helping me decide my vote.[/quote]

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