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[quote=jsteele][quote=takoma]Based on this poll, the 2011 special election, and general feelings, my guess is that either Frumin or Silverman has a very low chance of winning as the race stands, maybe 5 or 10%.  That's chance of winning, not percentage of vote.  If one pulled out (quickly) and endorsed the other, I think the remaining one would have support pretty close to Bonds and Mara, so they'd have nearly equal chances to win, say 30%.  If the two were to do a coin toss to choose one to drop out, they would have equal chances to get that 30% probability, so each would have a 15% chance.  From a strategic point of view, the coin toss is a better strategy for each of them, and I think they are nuts not to do it.

The factor I am omitting, of course, is the public's reaction, especially their supporters.  Would people see it as an indication that they were not serious, or would most people understand it as a reasonable move by each one of them to enhance the probability of election?

Or do you all just think I'm nuts?[/quote]

I'm a bit shocked that you would base this post on the poll which had Silverman and Mara tied.

As I've said before in this thread, I think the suggestion that this is a "Bonds vs Mara" election is a fallacy. Of course Bonds and Mara want you to believe this because it suits their purposes. Of course the Washington Post -- which has endorsed Mara in four elections -- wants you to believe this because it fits its purpose as well.

It is also a mistake to read too much into the 2011 election. In 2011, Mara did not face strong opposition in Ward 3. He received nearly half the votes in that ward -- 4091. That's out of a total of 11851 votes he received city-wide. Frumin could easily take a large chunk out of that. Really, for Mara to have any chance at all, he needs voters to abandon Frumin. Hence, the constant flow of anti-Frumin posts in this forum originating in the Mara camp.

If you wanted to portray the election as Bonds vs Frumin-Mara-Silverman (just putting the names alphabetical) I might agree. But, I don't believe there is sufficient evidence to declare this a Bonds vs. Mara election. So, any coin toss needs to include Mara.
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