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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]It depends also on charter closures and where the kids decide to go. There are a number of charters looking iffy, but they're scattered around and it's hard to say when or if any one of them will collapse or be closed.
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I’d be curious to hear people’s rankings on the charters most likely to close. Not the ones that should, I think we have clear evidence ones that should close won’t, but how folks would rank probability of closure for the ones they see most likely to close. [/quote]

Well, apparently SSMA is experiencing an enrollment decline and the financial trouble that goes with it, as well as years of low test scores. So that's one.

Also look at any school that's on the Financial Monitoring List for a serious budget gap, rather than a one time accounting issue or the fraud at KIPP, that also has low performance academically.
Capital Village
Wildflower
Digital Pioneers
IDEA
Bethune

Also look at any school that's had a review with conditions lately, but you'd have to pick through the recent PCSB hearings over the past two years or so. One is Girls Global.

Plus anything with low CAPE scores or Summative Scores: Rocketship, maybe Howard Middle School, whatever has the lowest stats.

When the Financial Analysis Report comes out (which it hasn't since 2023), it will be a very interesting read. As will the OSSE enrollment spreadsheets which are in late winter. Basically any school with a significant enrollment decline (that wasn't intentional, obviously), or a significant budget deficits, especially if closing it requires them to move locations, is in trouble.[/quote]

Of the schools that you called out for low performance academically - Capital Village, Wildflower, Digital Pioneers, IDEA and Bethune - only Capital Village performs worse than KIPP in english/reading. The others perform better. Also, compared to these other schools, Howard is toward the middle not low - for example, Howard ranks well above KIPP and Rocketship in english/reading and math performance.

The charters most likely to have difficulties (from conditions to closure) - Capital Village, SEED, Rocketship, KIPP, IDEA, Capital City and Thurgood. Capital Village probably ranks first for closure given really low enrollment (90 kids), being on a financial plan and being low academically. Rocketship, KIPP and Thurgood are up for review so it will probably be conditions before anything more drastic. SEED is up for an out of cycle review and the low test scores that just came out don't make them look any better. Capital City and IDEA had conditions from the last cycle of reviews so their status just depends on whether the most recent test scores (which were low again for both) or other data cause them to miss meeting the conditions.

However, based on the PCSB's past actions, it's doubtful there will be outright closures for academics or finances mandated by the PCSB. The schools limping along will continue to do so unless their finances cause a collapse.[/quote]

Didn't know about Thurgood. I doubt they'd close KIPP, obviously, and the parent org has deep enough pockets to ride out some low enrollment or remediate issues jeopardizing their sites. Cap City had conditions but nothing dire.

I think Rocketship may lose its lowest performing campus. It's really egregiously low. SSMA may collapse financially and for low enrollment.

I forgot to mention Harmony, which has limped along for 10+ years but never performed well, despite the parent org putting in some extra cash. [/quote]

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