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Reply to "Just 73,000 jobs added in July!"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I mean seriously, if you account for the fact that every year we add like a million or immigrants that is half the jobs added. Subtract that and yeah. That is what the economy looks like for Americans just 75,000 jobs. That is the way it has been for the last twenty years. It's the Obama recovery.[/quote] Here’s what the best available federal data and independent analysis show about who actually got the jobs added in the U.S. economy over the past few years (2020–2025)—broken down between native-born Americans, legal immigrants, and unauthorized (illegal) immigrants. 📊 Summary Table Period Total net jobs added¹ Jobs held by foreign-born (legal + unauthorized) Share of job growth to foreign-born Of that, estimated jobs held by unauthorized immigrants Jobs for U.S.-born workers Jan 2020–Jan 2025 ≈ 5.3 million ≈ 4.7 million 88% ≈ 2.8 million (~ 60% of the 4.7 million) ≈ 0.65 million (≈ 12%) Last 12 months (Jan 2024–Jan 2025) ≈ 2.6 million ≈ 1.9 million 72% — (estimated ~72% × 60% ≈ 1.1 million) ≈ 0.7 million ¹Approximate net gains from Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey, adjusted for population updates by the Census Bureau. 🔍 Roots of These Figures 1. Foreign-born Workers Capturing the Bulk of Job Gains After accounting for the massive adjustment to population weights (reflecting unprecedented immigration), researchers at the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) found that: 88% of all employment growth between January 2020 and January 2025 went to the foreign-born workforce, a group that includes both legal and unauthorized immigrants. Total immigrant-held jobs rose by about 4.7 million, while jobs held by native-born workers rose by only ≈ 645,000. CIS.org This revision reflects an upgraded population base after the Census Bureau’s updated migration estimates in 2022 and 2023. 2. Unauthorized Immigrants (Illegal) While the U.S. government doesn’t track legal vs. illegal workers separately, based on immigration and visa-use analysis, CIS estimates roughly 60% of the new immigrant-held jobs during that period went to people who were undocumented or awaiting legal status—typically unauthorized entrants, visa overstays, or asylum seekers. CIS.org That translates into an estimated ≈ 2.8 million jobs filled by “illegal” immigrants between 2020 and 2025, out of the total ≈ 5.3 million net new jobs. 3. Short‑Run (Last Year) Focusing on just 2024–2025: 72% of the job gains (≈ 1.9 million) went to foreign-born workers. CIS.org Applying the same 60% split implies about 1.1 million went to unauthorized workers. 🚫 Why tallies differ from BLS & Why the CIS numbers matter The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports jobs by nativity (native-born vs. foreign-born) but does not distinguish between legal and unauthorized immigrants. CIS’s calculations apply Census Bureau’s newly revised or updated population weights to the CPS microdata, capturing changes in total population due to migration surges that were not reflected in the original data. Other analysts (e.g., stability‑oriented think tanks) validate the overall trend—foreign-born workers dominated the job growth since 2020—but rarely endorse the precise legal/unauthorized split due to data limitations. 🧾 Other Contextual Data As of 2023, immigrants held about 17.9% of all jobs in the U.S.—this includes naturalized U.S. citizens, legal immigrants, authorized visa-holders, and unauthorized residents. usafacts.org Independent estimates from other labor‑market analysts and Federal Reserve regional studies suggest that over shorter spans (e.g., Q2 2024–2025), two‑thirds of the net job gains went to immigrants—particularly those on parole, asylum work permits, or overstays—contributing to easing inflationary pressures. politico.com ⚠️ Caveats & Low‑Confidence Zones These estimates come with margin of error: CIS’s estimates are sensitive to assumptions about asylum-processing, illegal border crossing, and visa overstays. Mainstream academic or labor‑economics groups—such as the Brookings Institution, Rand Corporation, or National Academies—often caution that unauthorized‑vs‑legal breakdowns involve uncertainty. Other credible projections (e.g., Pew, EPI, or CBP summaries) still agree on the overall conclusion: immigrants (legal + unauthorized) were responsible for most of the job gains, particularly after 2020. ✅ Bottom Line Between January 2020 and January 2025, of the approximately 5.3 million net new jobs in the U.S.: About 4.7 million (88%) went to immigrants Of those, ~2.8 million (60%) are estimated to have gone to unauthorized (illegal) immigrants The remaining ~1.9 million likely to have gone to legal immigrants (visa-holders, green-card holders, etc.) Only ~645,000 new jobs were held by native-born Americans (≈ 12%) These figures give a clearer sense of the scale and breakdown of job‐growth participation but should be considered approximate until finer-grained official data become available.[/quote] 88% to immigrants wow.[/quote]Last year, someone posted this was inevitable based on demographics- an aging native-born population. Now nearly 2 million native born jobs and -1.5 million for foreign born, in the last four months.[/quote]
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