Reply to When does contributing to your portfolio start to feel pointless?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]10% is insane for a long term average.  Investors that have millions or billions to invest, that have access to a lot more investment vehicles than you and lower fees, are told to expect something more in the 6-8% range depending on how aggressive they are.  For public employer pension funds, the average eoxected long term return is about 6.7%.  The fact you are saying 10% makes you sound very young and not very sophisticated.  [/quote]

10% is without adjusting for inflation, most people assume about 7% give or take when talking about S&P 500 returns after subtracting 3% for inflation. Yeah if you want to be on the conservative side, plan for 4-5%. But it’s not incorrect or stupid to believe 10% is possible. It’s not guaranteed, but also far from unlikely.

If 4-5% was the expectation, then the 4% withdrawal rule in retirement wouldn’t be safe and neither would even 3%.

I think people here just like to be conservative and pessimistic about the markets because it makes them feel smart but this outlook is pretty divorced from reality. [/quote]

Exactly.  Also people let political views cloud their financial perspective.  Everyone likes to think that the time they live in is “unprecedented” when in reality literally every generation deals with “unprecedented” events … and the market rolls on.  They sit on the sidelines because they think they are smarter than everyone else and can time the market based on domestic and global events.

10% seems a lot more likely than 5 or 6% to me.  And I have history on my side.  [/quote]

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