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Metropolitan DC Local Politics
Reply to "Wapo opinion piece today on nuclear attack"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I read it in today’s paper. Terrifying and wish I hadn’t seen it given the current imbecile in charge. [/quote] OP here, that's how I feel! Also, there was NOTHING at the end of the article about the likelihood of this happening, what to do to protect yourself, etc. It was just "Devastation, if you live in the DMV you're dead. The end." That's not an opinion piece, it's something else. What, exactly, I'm not sure. [/quote] [b]There is a vanishingly minuscule probability that this will ever happen.[/b] You have more risk of dying from a car accident, falling down the stairs or being struck by lightning. [/quote] This is true only under the condition that the risk continually decreases. If the annual chance of a nuclear exchange were to remain at, say, a steady 1%, or increases, then the risk of such an apocalypse would be scarily high, and, in the long run, a virtual certainty. [/quote] You are suggesting that we have a nuclear war every 100 years. There's no evidence to support that assertion. [/quote] Such a 1% annual chance would make the likelihood of a nuclear exchange within 100 years 63.4%.[/quote] The difference between stats 101 and someone who truly gets statistics is the difference between being able to do the math and knowing when it makes sense to apply the math.[/quote] Man, do some of you say obtuse stuff. I can't help you further. [/quote] I'll help translate: you don't know what you're talking about and your "percentage likelihood" calculations are dumb. That easier for you?[/quote]
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