Reply to Assuming they are all independent separate events, the probability of receiving at least one acceptance is 33% if you ap

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Look, forecasters don't get the future inflation number or the USD-JPY rate correctly most of the time, but it doesn't stop them from using reason to arrive at a forecast , and they get the direction right most of the time even if not the exact number.

OP is similarly using reason. And the math is correct if you assume a set of qualified students whose stats put them in the range of these schools.

OP used 4% acceptance as an example. You can use Naviance to actually get a sense of probability of not being accepted to a school for your stats (calculate acceptance for that higher stat cluster). So let's say using the Naviance plot of GPA and SAT, your child has a 15% probability of admit at Cornell, and a 15% admit at Dartmouth, (that would be 85% probability of rejection at each). So the probability of rejection FROM BOTH is 
0.85*0.85= 0.7225 , i.e. 72%.

If Harvard is a 8% admit probability for your stats, then the probability of reject from ALL THREE is
0.92*0.85*0.85= 0.6647 (66%).

The math is correct...and the correct interpretation is:
1. For those students whose stats put them within the range, applying to more elite schools lowers the likelihood of being rejected by all or put another way improves the probability of being accepted by at least one.
2. But that said , the resultant rejection probability is still high and for most of the best kids rarely gets better than a coin toss.

You don't get shattered when you lose a coin toss. Don't get shattered when your kid doesn't get into an elite.
[/quote] You can only do this math if the events are independent, which is obviously not the case.[/quote]

DP.  
It's semi-independent.  
You can mentally adjust the result, knowing that it's not completely independent. [/quote]

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